By Sultan Musayev | 2025-01-30

ALMATY -- Russia's attempts to rewrite the narrative on nuclear tensions by portraying the West as the primary source of global security threats have largely failed, analysts say.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine invasion, Russia has repeatedly ramped up its nuclear rhetoric.

In the spring of 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, alarming Europe and escalating tensions.

At the same time, Russian officials made public statements about their readiness to use nuclear weapons if the nation's security came under threat. Moscow further conducted tactical nuclear weapon exercises last May, heightening global concerns.

But recently the Kremlin has tried to deflect blame and distance itself from its inflammatory post-invasion rhetoric in an effort to put the onus of inciting nuclear conflict on the United States.

In a January 13 post on Telegram, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the previous US administration of pushing "the world toward the brink" in its support for Ukraine.

Putin's efforts to rewrite history and blame Washington for the nuclear tensions have flopped, said Valery Volodin, a Kazakh political analyst.

"Nuclear threats during the war in Ukraine came exclusively from Russia. This is an obvious fact no matter how much it tries to deny it," he said. "Scaring the world with a nuclear weapon became the Kremlin's favorite method."

"Statements by the Russian leadership about the United States provoking a nuclear confrontation are an attempt to rewrite history and shift responsibility for its own actions," Volodin added.

Reckless bluster amid setbacks

Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has continually stepped up its nuclear rhetoric and acted defiantly toward the West.

In September, Putin announced that Russia was revising its nuclear doctrine in response to a discussion about possibly allowing Ukraine to use Western missiles to strike Russian territory.

In the updated doctrine, Moscow stated that it considered any assault by a non-nuclear state a joint attack if it occurs "with the participation or support of a nuclear power."

It also allows the use of a nuclear weapon "if reliable information is received about the takeoff or launch of strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic or other flying vehicles and their crossing the Russian border," the Associated Press reported in November.

Russia reappraised its nuclear doctrine after suspending a strategic arms treaty, New START, in February 2023. Its repudiation of New START stirred more tension in the region.

Putin never had true intentions of pushing "the button," said Arman Shurayev, a journalist in Kazakhstan and former director of Khabar and KTK, the largest Kazakh television channels.

"Putin is too much of a coward to do that, but it's easy to issue threats when you're sitting in a bunker," Shurayev told Global Watch.

Russia has botched attempts to back its nuclear bluster with shows of force and nuclear capability, he pointed out. He cited the failed test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile in September when an explosion occurred inside the missile silo.

This missile, which some observers called an object of pride for Putin, can carry nuclear warheads.

In periods of global tension, it is always best to rely on objective facts and analyze the parties' actual behavior, which is the only way to avoid being deceived, said Shurayev.

"Yesterday it was nuclear extortion; today it's false accusations. That's a direct path to a dead end that will only further the already terrible position ... into which Putin drove the country," Shurayev said.