By Galina Korol | 2024-09-02

KYIV -- Belarus is concentrating "significant" manpower and military equipment in Gomel province, which borders Ukraine north of Kyiv, under the guise of training exercises, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

Belarusian special forces are among the troops near the border, along with weapons and military equipment -- including tanks, artillery, multiple-rocket launchers, air defense systems -- and engineering equipment, the ministry said in a statement August 25, citing intelligence agencies.

The ministry also noted the presence of Wagner Group fighters -- some of whom are being hosted by Belarus after their late leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed rebellion last year.

"We warn Belarusian officials not to make tragic mistakes for their country under Moscow's pressure, and we urge its armed forces to cease unfriendly actions and withdraw forces away from Ukraine's state border to a distance greater than the firing range of Belarus' systems," the statement said.

It said military exercises in the border area pose a "global security" threat given the nearness of the Chernobyl nuclear power station -- site of the world's worst nuclear disaster.

"We emphasize that Ukraine has never taken and is not going to take any unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people," the ministry added.

It warned, however, that if Belarus violates Ukraine's borders, the country will take all necessary measures of self-defense.

"All troop concentrations, military facilities and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the statement concluded.

Lukashenka's games

Belarus's latest aggressive rhetoric began to escalate following Ukrainian victories in Kursk province, analysts say, but they question how ominous the supposed Belarusian buildup on the Ukrainian border is.

"This is a perennial question, where the Russians' overall objective is to create a threat for us [on the border with Belarus]," said Serhiy Kuzan, a military analyst and director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. "And this objective has grown in importance thanks to our successful Kursk operation. After all, a physical attack on Russia really happened."

Ukrainian troops poured into Kursk largely unchallenged starting August 6, and have continued to gain ground and take prisoners of war.

"The possibility of provocations from Belarus cannot be ruled out," Kuzan said.

"This must be understood, but we must follow official statements," he told Kontur. "Our intelligence services have their finger on the pulse... We have sources inside Belarus, and we are monitoring and observing any movements."

Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka in 2022 had allowed Russian troops to station in Belarus during what Russia and Belarus called "drills" before they launched their invasion in February.

"This is a part of the front that the Russians have not yet used to invade Ukraine," Mykhailo Prytula, a military analyst and a colonel in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reserves, told Kontur. "They could operate under a foreign flag there."

Lukashenka said Ukraine has "raised the stakes" by launching an operation into Kursk, independent news outlet Meduza reported August 18, citing BelTA, the national news agency of Belarus.

Inflated Belarusian claims

Belarus deployed almost one-third of its army to the border because Ukraine not only "keeps more than 120,000 troops near the border with Belarus" but has also begun to send additional units there, he said in an interview with Russia-1 TV channel.

"If Lukashenka says 'we sent one-third of our army,' then let's calculate approximately how much that is," said Ivan Stupak, a former SBU officer now at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

"There are only 65,000 people in the Belarusian military. That's counting secretaries, doctors and everyone else, but the fighting contingent is about 40,000-45,000," he told Kontur. "So suppose 12,500 soldiers have approached the border -- this actually doesn't matter at all and isn't much."

Even this unimpressive claim should be questioned, said Stupak.

"This is another attempt to divert our attention from Kursk province and make us pull our forces out of Kursk province and put them on the Belarusian border, where they were until July of this year," he said.

"If we also analyze information from public forums, we can calculate that there are currently approximately 1,100 [Belarusian] troops [on the Belarusian side of the border]."

That is the figure cited by Belarusian Hajun, an open-source project monitoring the military activity of Russian and Belarusian troops.

"This number of troops ... does not pose a threat to Ukraine," Belarusian Hajun posted on Telegram August 25 in response to the Foreign Ministry's statement.

"We also note that the troops are deployed up to 50km from the border. We believe that the current escalation at the border has propaganda and political aims rather than military ones."

'He is very afraid'

Lukashenka's bellowing about his armed forces indicates only one thing, Kuzan said: "His goal is to not be drawn into this war."

Instead, his main objective is to play along with Moscow and portray himself as its ally.

"To lose more than a thousand men a day like the Russians, and to have [Belarusian] critical infrastructure and military targets be attacked by us -- that is not something that Lukashenka can afford," said Kuzan.

Stupak agrees, pointing out that Belarus has now seen what Ukraine is capable of in fighting for its independence.

"The Belarusian army's last real combat experience was in World War II," he said. "From its southern to northern borders, Belarus is just over 500km. This is nothing after our drones started flying 1,000km and more."

"I think Lukashenka understands this perfectly well. And if Belarus invades Ukraine, there are already at least 17 designated targets in Belarus that will be hit," he said.

Stupak recalled Lukashenka has repeatedly said that in the event of war, Belarusian authorities would have to issue weapons to every family and every adult in Belarus.

Indeed, it would be difficult for a small country with a small army to defend itself in any other way. However, in reality, Lukashenka is unlikely to allow this move.

"He is very afraid that the weapons that would end up in the hands of Belarusian civilians could be turned against him, and there are no guarantees against this," said Stupak.

This view is consistent with Belarusians' attitudes, which analysts say have not changed since last year.

"About 80% of the population of Belarus opposed having their army participate in the war with Ukraine," said exiled sociologist Andrey Vardamatskyi, director of the Belarusian Analytical Workshop and now a resident of Poland, summarizing some of his latest survey results, French news radio station RFI reported in 2023.