By Olha Chepil | 2025-04-30

KYIV -- In the early hours of April 24, a missile slammed into a residential neighborhood in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, killing 12 people and wounding 90 more. The missile was no ordinary Russian weapon -- it was a North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian intelligence is now working to verify the details. If confirmed, the use of North Korean arms would point to an expanding Pyongyang-to-Moscow supply relationship, which international isolation and wartime necessity have shaped.

"Together they kill people and make a mockery of life -- that is the only meaning of their cooperation," Zelenskyy wrote on his Telegram channel following the attack.

For the Kremlin, North Korean support offers a lifeline -- if a precarious one -- as its military strains under the pressures of a prolonged war.

A growing addiction

North Korea has been developing ballistic missiles for decades in defiance of international sanctions. Russia began using them in 2024, including the KN-23 and KN-25, both similar to Russian Iskanders. These supplies have helped Moscow continue attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure despite shortages of its own high-precision missiles.

"Without [North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un's] support, President Vladimir Putin wouldn't really be able to prosecute his war in Ukraine," Hugh Griffiths, former chairman of the United Nations panel monitoring sanctions against North Korea, told The Guardian on April 25.

Since September 2023, North Korea has sent more than 15,000 shipping containers to Russia, likely containing more than 4 million shells and missiles, satellite analysis by the Open Source Center and Reuters has shown. And by early 2025 Pyongyang had also transferred 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

"North Korea's contribution is becoming key. Previously it was 40%. Then there were periods when, in some areas, up to 80% of medium- and large-caliber shells were Korean made. Now experts believe more than 60% of Russian ammunition is produced in [North] Korea," Pavlo Lakiychuk, director of security projects at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, told Kontur.

Filling the deficit

Artillery shells, especially 122mm and 152mm rounds used in Soviet systems, have become increasingly scarce at the front. With Russia's defense industry unable to meet demand, North Korea, which has significant reserves of Soviet-designed arms and production capacity, has become a key supplier.

"And [North] Korea happens to have enough of this 'wealth.' It retained its production capacity and is producing [arms] and supplying Russia. Now the volume of supplies from Korea has increased," Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, told Kontur.

These shipments have allowed Russia to maintain frequent combat operations despite the steady decrease of its ammunition stockpiles, which analysts say takes time to replace.

"Russia has practically exhausted its reserves. And the Ukrainian armed forces helped. This trend is very interesting in terms of what is being supplied and why it is making Russia more dependent on North Korea. Because nonstandard caliber systems are also being supplied," Gonchar said.

He pointed to the delivery of nonstandard caliber systems, including the M-1978 Koksan, a 170mm self-propelled gun used only by North Korea.

"It's a creation of the Kim dynasty. It's the same story with the 240mm multiple-rocket launcher, which, too, can be armed only with shipments from North Korean arsenals or factories," said Gonchar.

When Russia's defense industry cannot meet battlefield demands, Moscow has no choice but to turn either to Iran or North Korea for supplies, said Lakiychuk.

Whatever Iran is able to provide, Russia buys from Tehran, and when Iran cannot deliver, Russia turns to Pyongyang.

Hazardous and defective

While providing support, shoddy North Korean weapons pose serious problems on the battlefield. Military analysts report that Russian troops are often shocked by the poor performance of North Korean shells, which have exploded in the barrel or immediately after firing. In some cases, they are unable to launch the shells at all.

"[W]hen shells are marked as Korean shells, they are very substandard," said Lakiychuk. "A warhead or shell is more than 20% off the standard specification."

The reliance on low-quality ammunition has weakened Russian artillery performance and put both Russian and North Korean soldiers at greater risk. Pyongyang has sent about 11,000 personnel to fight alongside Russian forces, analysts estimate.

"They need all these North Koreans only as cannon fodder for suicidal assaults," Alexander Kovalenko, a correspondent with InfoResist, told Kontur.

As the war drags on, North Korea may supply more-advanced weapons, including guided antitank missiles, antiaircraft missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles and drones that it developed jointly with Russia, analysts say.

"Today, Ukraine has become the first country in the world not only to face North Korean military personnel in combat but also to serve as a testing ground for the North Korean military-industrial complex's 'miracle weapons,'" said Kovalenko.

"No other country in the region has experienced such challenges in the past half-century or more."