By Galina Korol | 2025-05-20

KYIV -- In a Baltic country of just 1.37 million people, sirens will wail across more than 20 cities reaching about 65% of its population.

This readiness test is part of Siil (Hedgehog) 2025, Estonia's largest-ever military exercise, bringing together 16,000 troops from 11 NATO nations to rehearse what was once unthinkable: a coordinated defense against Russian aggression.

Running from May 5 to 23, the drills signal a new phase in NATO's readiness on its eastern flank. Observers from Japan, Israel and Ukraine will monitor the exercises, which form part of NATO's larger Steadfast Deterrence and Griffin Lightning operations, according to ERR.

'Serious preparation'

Estonia is taking concrete steps to strengthen its defenses, and there is no question that it is taking a potential invasion by Russia seriously, Vira Konyk, chairwoman of the Congress of Ukrainians in Estonia, told Kontur.

Drawing on Ukraine's wartime experience, Estonia is integrating lessons into its defense planning.

"Our troops are working with the Ukrainian armed forces," Konyk said. "Their combat experience is being incorporated into our defense strategies."

One key initiative is a planned military base in Narva, where 200–250 Estonian and allied troops will be stationed.

"The decision about this has been made," Dmitri Teperik, an international specialist on national resilience and civil security of the Baltic and Eastern European countries and director general of the NGO Resilient Ukraine, told Kontur.

Estonia is making major investments in security, which are expected to exceed 5% of Estonia's GDP next year, said Teperik.

'Reality, not fear'

Russia could be ready to attack Estonia by 2030, the end of President Vladimir Putin's fifth term, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna warned last year.

"This is reality, not fear. When I was the defense minister in 2016–2017, I knew that there were more than 100,000 Russian soldiers on the other side of the border ready to attack Estonia at any time," Tsahkna told Rzeczpospolita in February 2024.

"Now they're no longer there -- they're fighting in Ukraine. So you can literally say that the Ukrainians are fighting in our place."

While Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service currently assesses a direct Russian military threat as unlikely, it warns that this could change if the war in Ukraine ends on terms favorable to Moscow.

"Despite suffering enormous losses, the Russian armed forces are growing, learning lessons from the war, and rapidly advancing technologies such as drones," wrote Kaupo Rosin, the agency's director general, in the introduction to its latest annual report, as reported by ERR on February 12.

'A city between two flags'

The most vulnerable point in Estonia may be Narva, a small city on the country's eastern edge, directly across a narrow river from Russia.

"Here in Estonia, we call Narva the city where Europe begins," said Teperik.

Its only separation from the Russian city of Ivangorod is a bridge, and its population is more than 90% Russian-speaking.

"These are mainly ethnic Russians who were settled there after World War II," Konyk said. "Now the older generation still lives on those narratives ... not completely in the Estonian spirit."

That cultural divide raises difficult questions.

"Naturally, since Russia occupied Crimea and fought in the Donbas in Ukraine, many international media outlets have raised the question of whether Narva will be next," said Teperik.

Some residents "share the narratives of Russian propaganda," and in the event of an attack, "they may either welcome an occupation or not hinder it," he warned.

Against this backdrop, Estonia faces persistent hybrid threats from Moscow. Teperik pointed to the energy sector as a key example, citing recent damage to underwater infrastructure between Finland and Estonia, specifically a gas pipeline and one of the two main power cables connecting the countries.

While attribution is murky, "it benefits Russia when infrastructure is damaged, including underwater infrastructure," he said.

"Putin is a war criminal who needs to be tried," Teperik added. "The blood of hundreds of thousands of innocent people is on his hands."

'Putin with Hitler's face'

To justify potential aggression against Estonia, Russia recycles the same narratives it used ahead of its invasion of Ukraine: claims of Orthodox Christianity being under threat and the supposed need to protect the rights of ethnic Russians.

One recent example was the Victory Day celebration on May 9 in Ivangorod, just across the river from Narva. Russian authorities erected large concert stages facing Estonia, broadcasting propaganda throughout the day for Narva residents to see.

But the provocation did not go unanswered. In response, a large banner appeared on the medieval Narva castle, now a museum, depicting President Vladimir Putin as Adolf Hitler, with the English caption "Putler war criminal."

The wall, positioned above the river, made the banner clearly visible from the Russian side.

"This is our message, a reminder of the ongoing full-scale war and war crimes. Today, on Europe Day [May 9], we are celebrating peace and freedom," said Maria Smorzhevskikh-Smirnova, director of the Narva Museum, in comments to Espreso on May 9.

"When World War II ended, peace and freedom, respect for sovereignty, and the principles of solidarity became the fundamental values of the European Community. We call a dictator a dictator and war crimes war crimes," she said.