By Kontur | 2025-08-18

Every hour, somewhere under the Arctic ice, a submarine makes a move that no one will ever hear about. The crews on board are mapping undersea routes, testing detection limits and quietly rehearsing what to do if global tensions turn north. The details are secret, but the reason is simple: In the Arctic, advantage belongs to whoever can move without being seen.

While Russia has ringed its northern coast with bases and patrols, and China has been sending icebreakers and research missions to stake a claim, NATO's presence is built in ways designed not to be noticed -- coordinating across allies, moving forces quietly and relying on technology built for stealth.

The outcome of this competition will influence who controls shipping lanes, energy reserves and strategic access points that connect the Atlantic and Pacific.

Strategic landscape

Russia's claim to Arctic primacy rests on its sheer presence: nearly 24,000 kilometers of coastline and more than 50 military facilities north of the Arctic Circle -- some newly built, others reactivated. These outposts host air defense systems, early-warning radars and specialized brigades trained for Arctic conditions.

At sea, Russia operates the largest submarine fleet in the region. Borei-class submarines carry nuclear ballistic missiles; Yasen-class submarines launch long-range cruise missiles. Strategic bombers like the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS patrol the skies, while MiG-31BM interceptors are tailored for high-latitude operations.

However, many of Russia's ships, aircraft and submarines date back decades, and its defense industry has struggled to replace them at the pace needed. Sanctions and supply shortages have slowed production further. Losses of high-value assets in recent conflicts, combined with operational setbacks in maintaining Arctic infrastructure, have eroded its ability to sustain the same level of presence.

China's ambitions in the Arctic are clearer than its capabilities. While it seeks access to energy resources, new shipping routes and a role in setting regional rules, it lacks the physical infrastructure to project military power there.

China has no Arctic bases, no dedicated under-ice submarine capability and only a small fleet of ice-capable vessels, most used for research rather than patrols. Its presence so far has been limited to scientific missions, diplomatic engagement and investment in Arctic infrastructure abroad. Beijing's influence in the High North remains more about building relationships and positioning for the future than about exerting direct, sustained control today.

NATO's coordinated advantage

NATO's Arctic strategy relies on reach, advanced technology and the ability of member nations to operate seamlessly together.

The United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Canada and Denmark each maintain forces that, when combined, form a dispersed but integrated presence across the High North.

The United States projects air power from Alaska with F-22 and F-35 fighters and B-52 bombers. Its most significant Arctic asset, however, is the submarine fleet. Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines and Virginia-class attack submarines can operate under Arctic ice, enter from multiple points and remain undetected despite Russia's undersea monitoring systems.

Norway fields P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to track activity in the Barents Sea. The United Kingdom deploys Astute-class submarines in close coordination with US missions. Canada and Denmark, via Greenland, guard the maritime gateways between North America and Europe.

Exercises like Arctic Edge, Cold Response and Dynamic Mongoose are full-scale rehearsals for operating in one of the harshest environments on the planet. They bring together ships, aircraft and troops from across NATO to practice everything from tracking submarines under the ice to moving forces quickly across frozen terrain.

The goal is to test equipment in sub-zero conditions and to ensure effective communication and coordination even when the weather, distance and darkness are working against member-states.

The invisible deterrent

NATO's submarines give the alliance a kind of presence that's hard to challenge. These vessels can move between oceans without surfacing, travel thousands of miles undetected and position themselves in places adversaries can't easily predict.

The uncertainty is the point -- if you can't see them, you can't be sure where they are or what they might do. That forces rivals to plan as if those submarines could respond at any moment, no matter what happens first.

Russia has tried to close that gap with sonar lines and under-ice sensors, but the Arctic is vast and unforgiving. NATO submarines can still slip through from multiple directions, even passing quietly between the North Atlantic and Pacific beneath the ice.

That kind of freedom of movement is becoming more important as the Arctic changes.

Warming seas are opening new shipping lanes and exposing energy reserves that once seemed unreachable. The region is moving from remote periphery to active arena, where both economic opportunity and strategic control are in play.

Russia's strength is its proximity and a network of Arctic bases. NATO's is the reach of its technology, the flexibility of its forces and the ability of its members to operate together as one.

While Moscow's assets are more visible, in the Arctic, the unseen often holds greater strategic weight.