By Galina Korol | 2025-08-19

Moldova, a country of some 2.4 million, could soon decide the balance of power in Eastern Europe. On September 28, voters will choose between a future tied to the European Union (EU) or one pulled back into Moscow's orbit, a decision experts say carries stakes far beyond the republic's borders.

The Kremlin considers Moldova a key front in its broader contest with the West. For the EU, the upcoming elections represent an opportunity to reinforce Moldova's path toward closer integration, while for Moscow they are a chance to reassert influence through political means.

The risks are clear, according to Valery Pasha, chairman of Watchdog.md civic think tank. He pointed to Belarus in 2020, when a rigged election left Moscow with near-total control. Within 18 months, the Kremlin used Belarusian territory as a springboard to invade Ukraine.

"If Moscow takes control of Moldova, there will be a similar script," Pasha told Kontur. "They will appoint their own people to key positions in the military and security agencies, strengthen forces in Transnistria and use the country for hybrid operations against Europe -- and, above all, against Ukraine."

Weaponized ballots

The Kremlin is ramping up information pressure on Moldova ahead of this fall's parliamentary elections, according to the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation.

Analysts point to an August 11 article by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu that repeated claims of "foreign control" and NATO influence.

On the surface, Russia's assertion that it would "accept any choice of the Moldovan people...[if it is not a fabrication]" sounds neutral, but the center said it is a tactic to preemptively cast doubt on results and justify destabilization.

Shoigu's remarks align with pro-Russian media and political activity inside Moldova. Moldovan President Maia Sandu warned on July 30 that Moscow plans "unprecedented interference," including hundreds of millions of euros in political projects designed to secure a pro-Kremlin majority.

"Moscow is willing to use any methods, and [the Russians] have already proven this in every previous election," Dmytro Levus, a political scientist and expert with United Ukraine, a think tank, told Kontur.

He argued Russia cannot risk losing influence in Moldova, as that would further weaken its position in southeastern Europe during the war in Ukraine.

Pasha estimated Russia spent about €150 million on destabilizing Moldova in 2024, with even greater sums expected this year.

"Intelligence services, political strategists and troll factories will be mobilized," he said, noting that Moldova cannot contain the effort without foreign support.

Paid protests

Street protests could become part of Russia's destabilization strategy in the country.

On August 11, NewsMaker reported that Ilan Shor, a pro-Kremlin fugitive oligarch living in Russia, released a video urging Moldovans to set up tents in central Chisinau for an open-ended protest, promising participants $3,000 a month.

"This is an attempt to inspire a [Moldovan] Maidan," Ruslan Rokhov, a political strategist and managing partner at PGR Consulting Group, told Kontur. It is "straightforward bribery of people with a call to pitch tents in Chisinau downtown."

Police said Shor's message incited illegal activity. Adriana Vlas, spokeswoman for the ruling PAS party, told NewsMaker that law enforcement officers should "conscientiously document all violations" and called for the vote buying to be punished.

Rokhov noted that the Kremlin has long relied on such tactics. He cited official data showing that about 300,000 Moldovans -- roughly 20% of voters -- took part in "Shor's electoral networks" in the last election, receiving payments in exchange for their ballots.

Analysts also pointed to Gagauzia, an autonomous territorial unit of Moldova, where Russia previously backed the election of pro-Kremlin governor Evghenia Guțul.

Levus said Moscow used propaganda, legal maneuvers for "special status" and promotion of loyal politicians to make "the Russian world the default settings" for many voters there.

Guțul was recently sentenced to seven years in prison over Shor party financing, but experts say the region's pro-Russian infrastructure remains intact and will likely be used again in this fall's elections.

Taking over parliament

The Kremlin is working on several fronts to secure a parliamentary majority, according to Rokhov.

On the left, it has formed a "patriotic bloc" of communists, socialists and other openly pro-Russian parties. Their goal is to consolidate left-leaning voters with warnings that closer ties to the EU would "drag Moldova into war," into NATO and erode Moldovan identity.

At the same time, the so-called Alternative bloc promotes pro-European slogans but, experts say, shows "the Kremlin's ears." Its task is to attract disillusioned supporters of the ruling PAS party.

"Amid economic difficulties and government mistakes, many voters are ready to vote for any party except the ruling party. In principle, this is normal in a democratic society," said Pasha, but added that the climate gives space for Kremlin-backed projects disguised as pro-European.

Pasha argued there is no single solution to countering Russia's hybrid war, calling instead for broad measures to keep Moldova on its European path.

"The information war is very intense. There is a lot of manipulation," he said.

Exposing covert agreements between pro-Russian politicians and Kremlin agents is the most important goal at the moment, according to experts. Independent media and investigative journalists must play a key role, while government agencies should speak openly about the threats.