By Galina Korol | 2024-05-02

CHISINAU -- As momentous elections approach in Moldova this year, Russia is busy trying to destabilize the former Soviet republic, observers tell Kontur.

This fall, voters will elect a president and will vote on amending the constitution to facilitate joining the European Union (EU).

Moscow wants to defeat pro-European President Maia Sandu, who is seeking a second term, and to scuttle any Moldovan dreams of aligning with Brussels.

"Russia is now starting a larger game and is betting not so much on Transnistria or some political force in Moldova itself but is instead relying on a region like Gagauzia," Alexander Kovalenko, Odesa-based military and political correspondent with InfoResist, told Kontur.

Following 'Kremlin training manuals'

Russia wants to create conditions that would justify possible aggression in Moldova, the Institute for the Study of War said in a report published April 19.

"The People's Assembly of Gagauzia, the pro-Russian autonomous region in Moldova, appealed to the Moldovan Parliament on April 19 to grant the Russian language the special legal status of a language of interethnic communication in Moldova," the report said.

This Gagauz appeal is likely part of Kremlin efforts to "justify" accusing Moldova of discriminating against Russian speakers and even invading Moldova to protect Russia's "compatriots abroad," analysts say.

The West forced Sandu to "openly drag Moldova into NATO, either directly or through unification with Romania," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said an interview with Russian radio the same day, adding that the West exerted similar pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Victor Ciobanu, a Moldovan political analyst, sees traces of "Kremlin training manuals," which Moscow perfected earlier against Ukraine.

Pro-Russian Moldovan activists use "blatant lies and wild populism," he told Kontur.

However, a Russian military threat to Moldova, which does not border Russia, seems unlikely soon, he added.

Ukraine provides the only possible land route for Russian troops wanting to strengthen their deployment in Transnistria.

Russia has kept about 1,500 troops in the breakaway region since 1992.

Ukraine's ability to fight off Russian invaders even during an ammunition shortage rules out "future aggression from Russia" against Moldova, Ciobanu said.

Kovalenko agreed, citing an agreement with Sandu found on Zelenskyy's official website.

In 2022 Zelenskyy agreed to a "fitting response" if anything inimical to Ukraine occurred in Transnistria.

Targeting Gagauzia

With a Russian invasion likely foreclosed, the Kremlin prefers to wage hybrid war through Gagauzia, say analysts.

Much of Moldova's pro-Russian population lives in the small autonomous region.

Gagauz Governor Yevgenia Gutsul, elected in 2023, is the Kremlin's favored protegee in the struggle to keep Moldova from joining the EU, according to observers.

Through Gutsul, "destabilization could begin by means of the Șorists [supporters of the banned pro-Kremlin Șor party] ... And that could be used to destabilize all of Moldova," Kovalenko said.

Gutsul "even got the opportunity to meet directly with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin himself," he added, referring to a March encounter outside Sochi, Russia.

"It's a rather rare occurrence when such a marginal ... politician meets with Putin ... it demonstrates that Russia, at the highest level, is now paying attention to Gagauzia."

Gutsul is "an interesting and curious character whom no one knew before the local elections," Ciobanu said.

The region has only "about 60,000 voters," he said, making it easy for Russia to "buy all the votes."

However, as of now, Gutsul has a considerable legal problem: an indictment for allegedly channeling Russian funds to the banned Șor party in 2019-2022.

Her trial began April 30.

What are 'Victory' and money for?

As the presidential election and EU referendum near, self-proclaimed leaders of the Moldovan pro-Kremlin opposition held a congress in Moscow.

On April 22, they agreed to form a political bloc dubbed Victory.

"There were actually four Șor party clones that were created after the Șor party was banned," said Ciobanu. "They gathered them together into a certain political bloc, which they are calling Victory."

However, upon returning from Moscow, the congress participants endured a search by police.

About 150 Moldovans -- most of them at the Chisinau Airport -- were searched overnight April 22-23, national police chief Viorel Cernauteanu told reporters.

Police made no arrests but seized more than 20 million MDL (about $1 million) in breaking up what they described as a "scheme of illegal financing of political parties from dark sources," AFP reported.

Russia "cynically [exploited] poor retirees" in handing them money, said Ciobanu of the congress attendees.

Money given to congress participants and other supporters of Russia is meant to destabilize Moldova, say observers.

Moldova has a problem with "illegal political financing" of pro-Russian parties, agreed Andrei Curararu of Chisinau, an analyst of European integration, security and the fight against corruption with the WatchDog.md website.

Those parties are receiving "up to $3 million a month illegally," he told Kontur, quoting police.

Referendum at risk

"They [the Russians] have two important tasks at the moment. First, to disrupt the pro-European referendum, and second, to create their own single [presidential] candidate," said Marianna Prysiazhniuk of Kyiv, an analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

"Their plan for the referendum contains more danger both for [Ukraine] and for Moldova" than the presidential election does, she told Kontur.

If Russia succeeds in thwarting pro-EU sentiments, Moldova will be unable "to rewind and replay those sentiments" for another attempt at joining, she warned.

Curararu also perceives pro-Russian activists' desire to disrupt the referendum.

"They are trying to make sure that this referendum does not pass and to give Brussels this picture that, for example, Gagauzia won't participate in this referendum at all," said Curararu.

Pro-Russian parties might tell their voters to shirk the EU referendum to "detract from the turnout," he said.

Elections and referenda require a minimum turnout of voters to be valid in Moldova. The required percentage depends on the type of balloting

Moldova's future very much rides on "how much money [Russia] will pour in now" and how the government and its security agencies plan to fight Moscow's scheming, said Curararu.

"We need to mobilize pro-European citizens and the diaspora, a very high percentage of which favors European integration," he said.

"It is also necessary to minimize the risks associated with [campaign] financing, limit the money flowing into Moldova and wrap up the trials related to past elections."