By Sultan Musayev | 2025-08-26

Russia planned to roll 15 new commercial jets off the line this year. It managed to build just one.

Western sanctions, imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, have gutted the country's civil aviation industry, choking off supplies of foreign parts and crippling production. The slowdown comes as high interest rates deter investment and manufacturers scramble for technology they no longer have, Reuters reported earlier in August.

"There is no component base, no technology, no production facilities and no engineers," a Russian aviation source told the news agency. "To create all this from scratch takes years, if not decades."

Aviation crippled

Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia's aviation industry after its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, banning purchases of foreign-made aircraft, replacement parts, insurance and overseas maintenance.

The measures cut off access to Airbus and Boeing jetliners, long the backbone of Russia's medium- and long-haul fleet.

Russian airlines operate more than 1,100 commercial aircraft, but sanctions have made obtaining critical parts difficult. Analysts say carriers cannot ensure proper maintenance or buy new models from foreign manufacturers, forcing many to keep flying aging, outdated planes.

Askhat Zholdasov, an engineer at Kazakhstan Aviation Industry in Astana, said the outlook for Russia's aviation sector is bleak.

"Without access to modern technologies and proper maintenance, it's very hard to make sure the aircraft are at the airworthiness level they need to be at," Zholdasov told Kontur. "It's hard to say how the Russian airlines will be able to ensure, under these conditions, that flights are safe over the long term."

Russian airlines retired 58 aircraft last year. Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Federal Agency for Air Transport, Rosaviatsiya, cited resource shortages, limited repair capability and several aviation incidents.

Analysts warn the crisis threatens not only the industry but also Russia's broader economy, given the country's size and reliance on domestic passenger and cargo air transport.

Promises of domestic manufacturing

Russian authorities have previously pledged to revive the aviation industry through domestic manufacturing.

At the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, then–Trade and Industry Minister Denis Manturov announced plans to deliver more than 1,000 aircraft to Russian airlines by 2030, replacing foreign parts with Russian-made components and modernizing production facilities.

At the time, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of state-owned conglomerate Rostec, set more modest goals: over 110 planes by 2025 and about 500 by 2030. Plans also called for building the MC-21 jetliner using only domestic components.

Russian analysts described those targets as "exceedingly complicated" and "a major challenge." Oleg Panteleev, director of the aviation think tank Aviaport, told Vedomosti that sanctions had severely restricted access to essential manufacturing equipment.

As a result, in the last few years Rostec has repeatedly postponed mass production of the MC-21 jet, now pushed back to at least 2026. Testing of Russian-made parts is still underway, leaving them unready for use.

"The truth is, we're concerned about everyone's safety. After all, we're going to be flying in these planes," Chemezov told journalists in February 2024.

A year and a half later, little progress has been made.

Zholdasov doubts Russia can produce reliable, safe aircraft using only domestic resources.

"The only option left for them is to count on the sanctions on the aviation industry being loosened or lifted entirely," he said.

Other solutions

Earlier this month, Russia asked Ethiopia to lease civilian aircraft with crews and provide maintenance and insurance services, a so-called wet lease arrangement in which the lessor supplies the plane, crew and support. Ethiopia rejected the request, citing U.S. sanctions and its close operational ties with Ethiopian Airlines.

Fikret Mamedov, director of Azerbaijani consulting firm Sage Solutions, said the move shows how deeply the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia's position. With Western sanctions cutting off access to parts and technology, China has become Russia's primary economic supporter, supplying components such as microchips.

"Once upon a time Russia was among the world’s leading economies, it supplied the United States with rocket engines, traded closely with Europe and was an influential player on the global energy market," Mamedov told Kontur. "But now it's begging North Korea for ammunition, Iran for goods and Ethiopia for planes."

Cyberwars challenge

Cyberattacks are adding to Russia's aviation woes.

In late July, Ukraine's Silent Crow and Belarus's Cyber Partisans hacked Aeroflot's corporate network, crippling Russia's largest airline. The breach destroyed internal IT systems and affected more than 7,000 servers and workstations.

The hackers said Aeroflot employees ignored basic security protocols, noting that CEO Sergei Alexandrovsky hadn't updated his password since 2022. They also cited the airline's reliance on outdated operating systems such as Windows XP and 2003, which made the intrusion easier.

Aeroflot was forced to cancel dozens of flights after the attack.

Zholdasov said the breach highlighted Russia's broader decline.

"Russia has lost key technologies, along with its international ties and authority," he said. "The nation's capacity for development and progress has diminished, and this decline is particularly evident in the aviation sector."