By Olha Chepil | 2025-09-12

Europe is under attack, and not by tanks or missiles. Russia is waging a shadow war of arson, cyberattacks and GPS jamming designed to rattle governments and fracture public opinion.

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin has ramped up sabotage operations across the European Union.

Confirmed incidents surged 246% from 2023 to 2024, with more than 10 cases documented in the first half of 2025 alone, according to an August report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Analysts say these covert actions echo Soviet-era "active measures," psychological campaigns meant to destabilize nations.

"The Russians are undermining the situation because any war is waged first and foremost for minds and attitudes, not for territory," Yevhen Mahda, director of the Institute of World Policy, told Kontur.

Soviet active measures

Moscow is employing arson, cyberattacks, undersea cable sabotage and GPS jamming to destabilize Europe.

"The primary aim is to destabilize European nations, especially those bordering Russia," said Mahda, noting that the Kremlin is replicating Soviet-era "active measures" from the 1920s and 1930s.

Since 2022, GPS and radio frequency jamming incidents have increased in countries neighboring Russia, reflecting a broader trend of interference.

On August 31, a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen experienced GPS jamming while landing in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. The crew was forced to heavily rely on alternative navigation methods to land safely. European Commission officials suspect Russia caused this incident.

"We confirm there was GPS jamming, but the plane landed safely," said Arianna Podestà, European Commission spokesperson. Bulgarian authorities also believe Russia was responsible for the interference.

"This GPS jamming is one of many hybrid actions Russia is conducting, targeting Finland specifically and Europe broadly," Galyna Sergeyeva, a journalist at Yle, Finland's state broadcaster, told Kontur.

The consequences of Russia's approach are increasingly visible in Germany as well. In an August interview with French television channel LCI, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the Kremlin is actively interfering in the country's affairs.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is interfering extensively, particularly through social media," Merz said. "Our intelligence confirms daily attacks on our infrastructure and efforts to sway public opinion, aimed not at territorial gains but at destabilizing our democracies."

Analysts believe that Russia is deliberately preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO, using sabotage as a pressure mechanism.

"Reading about the war in Ukraine is one thing, but witnessing burning warehouses or disrupted transport firsthand is far more impactful. It's a powerful tool to influence public opinion," said Mahda.

Three fronts of sabotage

Olga Tokariuk, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, categorizes Russia's sabotage operations in Europe into three types.

First, attacks target facilities supporting Ukraine's military aid. In 2024, suspected Russian operatives set fire to UK warehouses holding Starlink terminals and other military equipment bound for Ukraine, part of a broader campaign targeting facilities that support Kyiv's war effort.

The second type of attack uses Ukrainians as perpetrators to discredit both refugees and the broader Ukrainian community. One example was the May 9, 2024, arson at an IKEA store in Lithuania, which prosecutors linked to Russian military intelligence.

"The focus isn't the target itself but the use of Ukrainians as perpetrators, serving as a Kremlin propaganda tool," Tokariuk told Kontur.

The third type of sabotage targets Ukraine's supporters. The most high-profile case came in May 2025, when arson attacks hit properties linked to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

"This shows a mix of tactics: using Ukrainians as perpetrators while striking at Ukraine’s allies to intimidate or discredit them," Tokariuk said.

British investigators are still examining why a group of four Ukrainian and Romanian nationals set fire to Starmer's family assets.

Results at low cost

Since European capitals expelled large numbers of Russian spies, the Kremlin has increasingly relied on intermediaries and mercenaries recruited online.

"Such operations are often very cheap: the sums involved are small, and sometimes no payment is made at all. For the Kremlin, this is convenient -- low-cost operations and low-cost perpetrators," said Tokariuk.

Young people aged 18–20 from Lithuania, the United Kingdom or Colombia look for easy money and have no idea that Russia is behind the tasks, since the intermediaries conceal any link to the Kremlin.

"In some cases the perpetrators never received payment," Tokariuk said.

At times, the Kremlin deploys its own agents. Finnish journalist Galyna Sergeyeva recalled how, several years ago, large numbers of asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Syria and other crisis-hit countries were funneled through Russia into Finland. That influx prompted Helsinki to close its border with Russia, with no plans to reopen it.

"Many business dealings also fall under sanctions, and those caught collaborating with Russia face prosecution. Finland is taking every measure to protect itself because it sees Russia as its primary threat," Sergeyeva told Kontur.

Analysts say the Kremlin's sabotage has a powerful psychological impact: burning warehouses and navigation failures resonate more strongly with the public than routine war reports. Moscow aims to fracture European societies, turning citizens against governments, migrants and Ukrainian refugees.

"Moscow is trying to provoke divisions within European nations. It tears societies apart," Tokariuk said.