Olha Hembik | 2025-09-16

WARSAW -- Sirens wailed and phones buzzed across eastern Poland as 19 Russian drones tore into NATO airspace overnight September 9, a violation that forced the alliance to act as never before.

Five of the drones flew on a direct course toward a NATO base in Poland, according to the German outlet Die Welt. All 19 were shot down in a nighttime operation that scattered wreckage across 16 sites in eastern provinces.

The incident marked the first time NATO forces have destroyed Russian drones inside allied territory.

Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS reconnaissance planes and aerial refueling aircraft were placed on alert as air defense systems roared to life. Residents received text messages warning them to avoid falling debris.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the strike left "no doubt about Russia's aggressive intentions," according to Politico.

Hours later, Warsaw invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, summoning allies for consultations on how to respond to Moscow's provocation. The last time Article 4 was triggered was in February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia tests NATO

The drone attack may have served multiple purposes, according to Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Portnikov, who argued that one of Russia's goals was to "test NATO's red lines."

"The Kremlin knows full well that the West's main weakness is not a lack of weapons or money, but political will," Portnikov wrote in a September Facebook post, noting that Moscow's aim is to "prove NATO's failure as a collective institution."

The drone incursions coincided with the launch of Russia and Belarus' Zapad-2025 military exercises. Former Polish Deputy Minister of Labor Piotr Kulpa described the timing as a clear "provocation."

In response, Poland temporarily closed its border with Belarus, citing increased provocations by both countries.

Kulpa told Kontur that Ukraine's development of Flamingo cruise missiles was a turning point in the war. These advanced weapons, with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles), will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory.

"This is a major game changer," he said, noting that by late fall 2025, Ukraine will possess strategic strike capabilities that Russia will struggle to counter.

Kulpa outlined two potential Russian responses to this development.

The less likely scenario involves Russia escalating the conflict with tactical nuclear weapons.

More plausibly, he believes Russia could expand its hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyberattacks or provocations, into central Europe.

These actions would be carefully calibrated to stay below the threshold that would trigger NATO's Article 5, which mandates collective military defense.

Kulpa warned that Russia is seeking to "play with Europe's fear," destabilizing the region without triggering a full NATO response.

Commentator Vitaliy Portnikov also argued that Russia seeks to create an atmosphere of fear in central Europe.

He told Kontur that the threat of war and terror often fuels political extremism, aligning with Russia's broader strategy to unsettle the region.

Portnikov warned that Russia's strategy of fostering fear creates fertile ground for political extremism, noting that far-right and far-left groups, which often sympathize with Moscow either openly or covertly, gain strength in this environment.

"Cooperation with the Kremlin becomes the norm, while solidarity with the victims of aggression becomes a luxury," Portnikov said.

Russia's media manipulation

Alongside drone attacks, a psychological operation targeting Polish media has emerged.

According to a September special report by Res Futura, this campaign aims to undermine public confidence in Poland's government, military, security agencies and NATO.

In addition to creating an impression of chaos and a lack of control over the skies, bots and trolls in recent days have sought to "drive a wedge between Poland and Ukraine" and fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. The aim is to weaken public support for continued political, military and financial aid to Kyiv.

"The Russians got what they wanted. Their main bet was not on military consequences but on the information space -- on confusion, polarization and undermining trust," Jerzy Wójcik, publisher of the Polish-Ukrainian outlet Sestry, told Kontur.

He said anti-Ukrainian narratives, such as claims of a "provocation by Kyiv" or that "Ukrainians want to drag Poland into the war," have gained the most traction.

Wójcik said they are "tied to hostility toward refugees and the erosion of solidarity," demanding special attention from his editorial team.

"The Kremlin wants Ukrainians to be seen as a burden, not as allies in the fight against the aggressor," Portnikov added.

Ukraine's defense partnership

On September 11, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wiesław Kukuła met with Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to discuss enhanced military cooperation.

Their talks focused on deploying advanced technologies and optimizing the use of unmanned reconnaissance and attack systems on the battlefield, according to the Polish Armed Forces' General Staff. Polish service members will now train with Ukrainian forces in Poland on how to neutralize drones after the attack, Euronews reported.

Political consultant and Ukrainian service member Oleksandr Antoniuk called cooperation with Ukraine a strategic necessity for Poland. He said Europe's security now depends on the country at war.

"The Ukrainian army has unique combat experience and a practical understanding of how the Kremlin wages war," Antoniuk told Kontur. He noted the forces have carried out dozens of large-scale operations and mastered new technologies, from drone warfare to cyberattacks.

By sharing its battlefield experience, Ukraine is already helping NATO deter Russian aggression, the expert said. That knowledge will also prepare the alliance for a new wave of Russian hostilities, which experts believe is already in the making.