By Sultan Musayev | 2025-10-30

On the streets of Bishkek, taxi driver Beishen Arzymatov counts every drop of fuel like it's cash. Each liter of gasoline costs more than it did the week before, and every price jump pulls his family's budget tighter.

Central Asian countries that rely on Russian gasoline are facing restricted fuel supplies and sharp price hikes at the pump.

In Kyrgyzstan, gasoline and diesel prices rose every week in September. By October, the popular AI-92 grade sold for 74 soms (about 85 cents) per liter, while diesel reached almost 80 soms (91 cents). The increase -- roughly 10% since summer -- is steep in a country where the average monthly salary is less than $500.

Gasoline is still available at most stations, but drivers worry supplies won't last.

"Russia is currently experiencing serious problems with gasoline, and we depend on them for this," Arzymatov, who drives for Yandex Taxi in Bishkek, told Kontur. "It's clear that we will soon experience the same problem. I don't even know how I'll work and feed my family then."

Even without a full shortage, the higher prices are straining daily life. Arzymatov said his earnings have dropped as customers balk at higher fares.

The ripple effects extend beyond the pump. Rising prices for Russian fuel in Kyrgyzstan tend to push up the cost of nearly all goods and services.

Feeling the consequences

"This isn't the first time Kyrgyzstan has felt the consequences of its fuel dependence on Russia," Elmira Suranchieva, an economist in Bishkek, told Kontur.

"Russia was once a reliable energy partner, but today that's no longer the case. The need to reduce our dependence is long overdue -- diversify fuel imports, build mini-refineries and create strategic fuel reserves."

Kyrgyzstan is exploring fuel imports from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan, but faces major logistical hurdles, said Kanat Eshatov, head of the Kyrgyz Association of Oil Traders, in an interview with RFE/RL's Radio Azattyk Asia. He warned that the country’s reserves could run out by the end of October.

Suranchieva said Kyrgyzstan can lean on its neighbors, mainly Kazakhstan, but that won't solve its problems. Kazakhstan also depends on Russia, importing about 1.5 million tons of petroleum products a year to meet domestic demand.

Analysts argue the fuel crunch in Russia will ripple north.

Olzhas Baidildinov, a member of the Experts Club under Kazakhstan's Senate, told Informburo.kz that the situation "will negatively impact our market." He said Kazakhstan might avoid shortages through year’s end but could face one next year.

Energy expert Anuar Kozhabekov added that the regional crisis will deepen as the war in Ukraine and attacks on Russian refineries continue.

Uzbekistan's moves

Meanwhile, another Central Asian republic, Uzbekistan, is moving away from Russia as an energy partner.

For the second year in a row, Tashkent has cut hydrocarbon imports from Russia while boosting purchases from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, according to inbusiness.kz, citing data from the market intelligence firm Argus.

In the first half of this year, rail shipments of oil and condensate from Russia to Uzbekistan fell by nearly half compared with the same period in 2024. At the same time, imports of raw materials from Turkmenistan jumped fivefold, and Kazakh gasoline deliveries surged almost tenfold.

Tajikistan, by contrast, remains almost entirely dependent on Russian fuel, Asia-Plus reported. The country has the most expensive gasoline in Central Asia -- $1.12 per liter, compared with $0.46 in Kazakhstan -- and its reliance on Moscow is deepening.

The Energy Ministry said Tajikistan imported 451,000 tons of Russian gasoline in 2024, with plans to bring in 50,000 tons more this year. Any disruption could pose a severe threat to its economy, the outlet said.

Russia's own fuel crisis continues to worsen. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have disrupted production, leaving some regions short on gasoline and forcing drivers to wait in kilometer-long lines. Prices have soared.

Ukrainian economist Vitaliy Shapran called the situation "quite critical." He told Kontur in August that even a 10% to 20% loss of refinery capacity directly affects oil output and refining.

Russian economist Maxim Blunt, now based in Latvia, described the war as a "large resource crematorium," consuming fuel along with other assets.

As the turmoil spreads, regional experts warn that Central Asia's dependence on Moscow has become untenable.

"You can't build your energy security with a partner whose economy is under constant attack," Ermek Syzdykov of Kazakhstan's National Chamber of Entrepreneurs told Kontur. "It's time for Central Asia to develop an independent energy strategy."