By Galina Korol | 2025-11-18

Each month that passes, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania refine a national playbook for the moment Europe hopes to avoid: a Russian move across their borders. The preparations run from fuel stockpiles to bus detours already plotted on paper.

Since 2022, the Baltic states have lived in a constant state of anticipation. They have developed a detailed plan they can activate if Moscow attempts to replay the Ukraine scenario along NATO's northeastern flank -- one that maps everything from transportation shifts to warehouses storing water and fuel.

Officials are working to account for every vulnerability: cyberattacks, political interference, transportation sabotage and possible unrest among Russian-speaking residents.

For the Baltics, these preparations are a reflex shaped by the memory of life under what many still call "Moscow's occupation."

Russia's warning signs

Kremlin officials insist they have no plans to attack neighboring states, but they used similar language for years before invading Ukraine. Even as soldiers without insignia moved into Crimea, Moscow repeatedly denied any military presence there.

A Reuters report on October 10 quoted Renatas Pozela, head of Lithuania’s firefighting service, saying Russia could mass enough forces "to take all three countries in three days to a week." His agency has mapped out which districts would evacuate first, where vehicle convoys would go and how to house displaced residents.

Pozela said authorities are preparing to resettle half the population of Lithuania's border regions -- about 400,000 people living within 40 kilometers (about 25 miles) of Russia and Belarus.

Kaunas has been designated a humanitarian hub capable of sheltering 300,000 people in schools, universities and Catholic parishes. Drivers fleeing on their own will be routed to secondary roads to keep highways open for military use. Storage sites are stocked with essentials, from medication to toilet paper.

"It's a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Reuters.

Latvia is drafting similar contingency plans. Ivars Nakurts, deputy head of the State Fire and Rescue Service, told the news agency that as many as 630,000 residents, or about one-third of the country, could be forced from their homes if Russia attacks.

Across the Baltics, more than 1 million people live in areas identified for potential evacuation, nearly one-sixth of the region's population of 6.2 million. Lithuania has 2.9 million people, Latvia 1.9 million and Estonia 1.4 million.

Despite the scale of these projections, none of the three countries plans to evacuate residents beyond national borders.

Citizens remain alert

Maria Kutnyakova, a journalist and civic leader from Mariupol, relocated to Vilnius after the war in Ukraine began. She told Kontur the Lithuanian capital lives in a constant state of alert -- residents remain calm but fully aware of the threat next door. Vilnius sits about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from Belarus, a distance missiles or drones can cross within minutes.

Kutnyakova said weather balloons from Belarus drift over the border almost daily, often lingering above military or industrial sites, especially airports. As a result, airports shut down for hours at a time. She said roughly 120 flights were delayed or canceled in October because of these incidents.

"This is a hybrid war. There's no other word for it," she said.

Kutnyakova showed a leaflet left in her mailbox containing 25 pages of emergency instructions -- whom to call, what to pack, how to respond. She added that "bomb shelter" signs now appear on buildings across the city.

Civilian defense in Lithuania has become far more serious, according to Kutnyakova. The Lithuanian Riflemen's Union, a century-old volunteer force, is drawing new members with training in firearms, tactical medicine and territorial defense.

Still, she said anxiety shapes daily life. Some Lithuanians she knows have sold property near the border, especially around the Suwałki Gap, fearing a potential invasion. Even so, most people she knows are prepared to defend the country "in the event of an aggression."

Residents of Estonia, which shares a 300-kilometer (186-mile) border with Russia, are also preparing for war -- steadily, but without panic.

"People have different attitudes: some people are more worried, while others are confident that everything will work itself out… But people aren't panicking," Vira Konyk, head of the Congress of Ukrainians in Estonia, told Kontur. She said many have packed emergency bags, just as Ukrainians did.

Preparations are underway on several fronts. The government is drafting evacuation plans, running training exercises and replenishing reserves; volunteers are recruiting others and expanding civilian first-aid skills.

"People are also getting training in evacuations and in how to handle emergency situations," Konyk said.

Reuters reported that Estonia aims to move 140,000 people -- about 10% of the population -- to temporary shelters if Russia attacks. In Narva, a Russian-speaking border city of 50,000, officials plan to send two-thirds of residents farther inland.

The Estonian Defense League, a volunteer paramilitary force within the armed forces, has also expanded.

Konyk said 5,000 people joined after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"People understand the need to be prepared to resist," she said, adding that Tallinn is investing in shelters, upgraded warning systems and broader military capacity.

Geographic trap for Russia

The region's relative calm stems from Ukraine holding the line for four years, Ihor Petrenko, a political analyst and head of the think tank United Ukraine, told Kontur. He said the threat facing the Baltics also exposes Russia’s own vulnerabilities.

"A war in the Baltic countries is like an attempt to bury their own ambitions," he said.

He argued that Kaliningrad, described by Moscow as a strategic outpost, is actually a liability. Any push to "break through the corridor" guarantees a direct war with NATO: "not a so-called special operation, but a real war, with a fleet, aviation and Article 5."

Petrenko said the Baltic Sea "isn't a space for war, but rather a geographic snare for Russia," noting its narrowness and the presence of allied fleets.

"NATO has frigates and subs that are several times larger, while Sweden and Finland have missiles that 'see' everything that's moving," he said.

Kaliningrad-based missile threats would run into the same limits Russia has faced in the Black Sea.

"Ukrainian sea drones have already proven that in the 21st century, the main fleet is one without a crew or emotions," Petrenko said. "And the Ukrainians have demonstrated how to force a 'great' army to flee from the sea."

While a Baltic war is theoretically possible, Russia would face impossible odds.

"Fighting simultaneously with Ukraine, NATO and geography is too much for even Putin to handle. But maybe that doesn't faze him, like we saw with Ukraine in 2022," Petrenko said.

If Russia tries to "inspect" the Baltic Sea, it will be "the vestiges of the Kremlin's imperial illusions" that sink -- not NATO.