By Olha Hembik | 2026-01-07

On maps, the rail lines that run east from Latvia look routine -- two narrow corridors slipping across the border toward Moscow and Pskov. But in Riga, they are now discussed as risks.

Confronted by Russia's war and hybrid pressure, Latvia is considering removing the very tracks that once tied it more closely to its neighbor, and officials now indicate the move would likely be coordinated with Baltic partners after fresh assessments from military experts.

Latvia's leadership moved the idea squarely into public debate after President Edgars Rinkēvičs and Prime Minister Evika Siliņa discussed it at their November meeting. Rinkēvičs called dismantling sections of track "an option for strengthening national defense and security," while urging decisions grounded in timing, scope and economic impact. Officials said they expect clearer decisions early in 2026.

The proposal is part of a broader reassessment on NATO's eastern flank: infrastructure once built for commerce may now carry strategic risk.

Hybrid threats grow

The government has already consulted the military about removing sections in eastern Latvia.

For political scientist Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, the discussion signals something larger. He told Kontur the plan is "an element of the new security paradigm in the Baltic region."

Zhelikhovsky said Rinkēvičs "is speaking explicitly about long-term tensions on the eastern border" and argued that military danger defines Latvia's security thinking.

Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine while waging hybrid operations against Western states. The decision, Zhelikhovsky added, aims both to improve security and to show that "the civilized world will not tolerate what Moscow has been doing in recent years."

He pointed to criminal activity, treaty violations and border provocations across the region. Lithuania faced disruptions when weather balloons from Belarus crossed its airspace and triggered airport closures last fall, a reminder, he said, of how hybrid tactics blur wartime and peace.

"This decision is being made with an eye on the years, and possibly even decades, ahead," said Zhelikhovsky. He doubted Russia would change course, even under new political leadership. "Nobody can feel completely protected in close proximity to the Russian Federation."

Railways as logistics

Supporters of dismantling argue that railways do not remain neutral in wartime. Latvia's track gauge matches Russia's 1,520 millimeters, and the network still relies on communications technology developed in Russia and Belarus.

"The Baltic Railway was part of the nationwide Soviet railway network," said Zhelikhovsky.

Experts have long urged Latvia to align with European rail standards. The practical concern is logistics: "During war, railways automatically become part of military logistics. It's easy to use it to transfer military cargo and personnel," said Zhelikhovsky, pointing to their continued role in Russian-occupied Ukraine. He cited Russia's new lines linking Crimea with occupied territories as evidence.

Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis said Latvia will remove tracks to Russia without delay if security demands it. Until then, the lines remain open for freight.

Economic consequences remain part of the debate. Removing cross-border rail could reduce transport revenue and hurt businesses tied to cargo trade. But advocates argue that risk mitigation outweighs losses, particularly if conflict widens.

Risk reduction for allies

Jerzy Mazur, a Polish Army Reserve officer and military expert, said Latvia's move would complicate hybrid strategies that exploit transport corridors. He told Kontur that the proposal is a security measure that also "reduces risks for other allies, including Poland."

Others caution against overstating its military effect.

Mykhailo Strelnikov, founder of the Museum of Victory over Despotism in Poland, described the step as primarily political. Geography leaves the Baltics exposed regardless of rail lines, and any Russian attack would likely rely less on tanks and more on missiles and drones.

"Mined borders and concrete hedgehogs are specific features of the Second World War," he said. "No one is going to move in tank columns anymore. Because people understand that wherever tanks go, there they will be left behind."

Even so, officials in Riga emphasize that consultation now extends across the region. Latvia has raised the railway question with Lithuania and Estonia, arguing that it touches the security of NATO's entire eastern flank.

"This is a fundamental issue, because we're talking about the security of NATO's entire eastern flank, especially one as vulnerable as the Baltics," said Zhelikhovsky. Had Russia achieved its aims in Ukraine, he added, the Baltic states might have been next.