By Galina Korol | 2026-01-13

Even as Russia has fired its Oreshnik missile in Ukraine, Belarus remains the place where the weapon's political value appears to outweigh its military presence.

For more than a year, authorities in Minsk have portrayed the system as already deployed and ready for combat, projecting an image of an immediate threat that satellite imagery and expert analysis do not support.

That gap between rhetoric and reality reflects a familiar authoritarian pattern.

President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and senior officials have repeatedly implied that Oreshnik systems were transferred to Belarus and placed on its territory, claims amplified by state propaganda. Yet officials have offered no timelines, identified no deployment sites and produced no verifiable evidence to substantiate their statements.

Satellite clues emerge

The clearest picture so far comes not from Minsk or Moscow, but from space. A Reuters investigative report published December 26 cited analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery by American researchers Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth, who said Russia is likely deploying mobile Oreshnik launchers at a former air base near Krichev in eastern Belarus. The site lies about 300 kilometers (roughly 186 miles) from Minsk and about 180 kilometers (112 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

The researchers told Reuters that construction began between August 4 and August 12 and displayed the hallmarks of a standard Russian strategic missile base. Eveleth pointed to a November 19 image showing what he described as a "dead giveaway": a military-grade rail transfer point surrounded by a security fence, suitable for delivering missiles, mobile launchers and related components by train. Lewis noted that a concrete pad poured at the end of the runway and later covered with earth was consistent with a camouflaged launch position.

Even so, the scale of the site undercuts official rhetoric. The researchers said the location could physically accommodate no more than three launchers, and the construction appears rushed, resembling the creation of a missile position rather than a fully operational combat facility.

Neither Russia nor Belarus has confirmed the satellite findings. The Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to Reuters' request for comment, and Belarusian authorities declined to comment.

Propaganda over reality

The limited evidence contrasts sharply with Lukashenka's public messaging. In late December, he again sought to project strength while speaking in Staint Petersburg, according to a December 22 report by the state-run outlet BELTA. Asked how many systems Belarus might receive, Lukashenka replied: "Ten -- that would be the maximum," he said with a smile.

He floated a similar figure last year, again without timelines, technical details or confirmation that any systems had been transferred. No independent evidence has emerged to substantiate those claims.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to transfer Oreshnik missiles to Belarus by the end of 2025. With that deadline, analysts note a widening gap between political statements and the actual military capabilities of both countries.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a military expert with BelPol -- an organization formed by former Belarusian security officials opposed to Lukashenka -- told Kontur that such promises must align with real production capacity and financing.

"To deploy even one division within the Republic of Belarus, you have to build the appropriate infrastructure for combat units and formations," the expert said.

That infrastructure, he added, includes concealed launch sites, headquarters, barracks for combat and security personnel and rear and technical support facilities.

"For Belarus, even an Oreshnik division is financially impossible. According to various estimates, a single Oreshnik missile can cost up to 80 million dollars. Ten systems isn't even a symbolic number. It's the result of the fantasy of one man's ailing brain," he said.

Limits and liabilities

Combat use has confirmed that Oreshnik is real, but experts caution against treating it as a technological breakthrough.

Ivan Kirichevsky, a serviceman with Ukraine's 413th "Raid" Regiment of Unmanned Systems Forces and a Defense Express weapons analyst, said the system is essentially a rebranding of an older missile design.

"Essentially, it's a two-stage version of the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, which originally had three stages," Kirichevsky told Kontur.

Its deployment in Belarus would also limit its usefulness against Ukraine. The missile's minimum launch distance is about 700 kilometers (roughly 435 miles), creating a "dead zone."

"If launched from Belarus, the missile would not hit Kyiv, but somewhere in the Black Sea," Kirichevsky said. "These weapons are aimed mainly at European countries," he added.

Kirichevsky also underscored Belarus' critical role in production. The Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant manufactures the chassis used across the system.

"If it doesn't provide wheels for these missiles, then there won't be any Oreshnik at all -- there would just be missiles with nothing to launch from," he said.

The BelPol expert said producing a single chassis takes 30 to 60 days and requires carefully scheduled production windows and guaranteed financing. He cited documentary evidence presented in the "Warlord: Part 3" investigative report showing the plant taking out loans to fulfill Russian defense contracts, driving itself deeper into debt despite unresolved financing problems under contracts signed years earlier.

Skepticism also surrounds the system's readiness for sustained use. The BelPol expert said that if Oreshnik had completed full testing and proven effective at scale, Ukraine would already have experienced systematic strikes.

Instead, he said, the system's selective use reflects a broader strategy of intimidation. Once deployed in Belarus, Oreshnik would become highly vulnerable in today's intelligence environment, making its battlefield value secondary to its political impact.

"The launcher can be rendered inoperable by an ordinary bullet that costs one dollar," he said.