By Sultan Musayev | 2026-02-05

One empty chair at the Kremlin's annual gathering of regional governors set off alarm bells about the future of Chechnya's strongman rule.

When Russia's regional leaders assembled for a routine December State Council meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin, the absence of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, one of the Kremlin's most loyal and feared enforcers, stood out immediately.

According to Novaya Gazeta Europe, Kadyrov had flown to Moscow the previous day but fell seriously ill overnight and was hospitalized at the Central Clinical Hospital. A person close to Kadyrov told the outlet that "he was barely revived in Moscow, after which he returned home."

The incident revived long-running speculation about Kadyrov's health and intensified discussion about who might succeed him.

Long-running health concerns

Reports about Kadyrov's illness and a possible succession have circulated for years.

In 2019, doctors diagnosed him with pancreatic necrosis and reportedly ruled out any chance of full recovery. Kadyrov did not disclose the diagnosis at the time, instead saying he was "temporary incapacitated" and attributing his condition to a common cold.

Since then, the Chechen leader has appeared less frequently in public and taken repeated medical leaves. Independent media have reported that he regularly receives IV drips and other treatments, including surgical procedures, at a Moscow presidential clinic. When questions about his health surface, Kadyrov typically issues blanket denials, dismissing reports as "gossip by satanists and neo-Nazis."

As speculation continued, his press service distributed videos showing him making statements or attending official events. Skeptics have argued that some of the footage may have been recorded in advance to counter rumors.

Over the past year, Kadyrov's condition has reportedly deteriorated sharply. Media outlets have described him as sometimes unable to walk without assistance or even stand. Kadyrov has blamed his health problems on stress related to the war in Ukraine.

"I have nervous disorders, a constant feeling of tension, as if I were sitting on live wire," he has said, describing worries about Chechen soldiers fighting there.

According to media reports, Kadyrov has largely stopped governing the republic in his customary hands-on style.

Signs of an emergency

More serious reports emerged in January. Citing a source in Ukraine's military intelligence, Ukrinform reported January 11 that Kadyrov had suffered kidney failure and was undergoing dialysis in a private hospital in Chechnya. Doctors, the outlet said, were offering a pessimistic prognosis.

Against this backdrop, independent analysts and media have increasingly treated the end of Kadyrov's rule as a matter of timing rather than speculation. Members of his extended family clan, or teip, including relatives from abroad, have reportedly gathered in Grozny. At the same time, preparations for a leadership transition have intensified in Moscow.

Independent outlets have named several possible successors: Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces unit; Adam Delimkhanov, a State Duma deputy; Magomed Daudov, Chechnya's prime minister; and Kadyrov's sons, Akhmat, 20, and Adam, 18.

Experts widely believe Kadyrov would prefer one of his sons to succeed him, a view reinforced by their rapid promotions despite their youth and lack of political experience. In January, Kadyrov appointed Akhmat, who has no higher education, acting deputy prime minister. Akhmat has also served as minister of physical culture and sports since May 2024.

Adam Kadyrov became secretary of the Chechen Security Council in April 2025, when he was still a minor.

Kadyrov has shown little concern about criticism that these appointments amount to nepotism aimed at entrenching family control.

"I appoint whoever I trust," he wrote on his Telegram channel in February 2023.

Moscow's final say

Despite Kadyrov's apparent preferences, reporting suggests the Kremlin is positioning its own candidates. iStories, citing two sources in the Federal Security Service (FSB), reported that Putin's administration favors Alaudinov, while the FSB prefers Delimkhanov.

Analysts say the Kremlin will ultimately decide the outcome. Vadym Denysenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, said neither of Kadyrov's sons could legally become head of the republic, calling such a move a clear violation of Russian law. He argued that the most likely successors are Daudov or Delimkhanov, both members of the Kadyrov clan who would continue his political line. Alaudinov has weaker prospects because he comes from a different clan, he said.

"There will be a conflict with the Kadyrov clan," Denysenko wrote on his Facebook page in January.

Denysenko also predicted that Chechnya's autonomy would shrink after a transfer of power, with local authorities losing influence over the Russian National Guard and its Chechen units.

Ruslan Nazarov, an international relations expert in Astana, said the transition may not be smooth. Influential Chechen clans are unlikely to accept a Kremlin-appointed leader they do not view as their own.

"The figure of Kadyrov in one form or another suited everyone, and he was also convenient for Putin, but it is unclear whether a new leader will be welcomed with open arms," Nazarov told Kontur. He did not rule out power-sharing among clans.

Talgat Ismagambetov, a senior researcher at Kazakhstan's Institute for Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies, said Moscow is using the uncertainty to tighten its grip on the region.

He told Kontur that Chechen clans are primarily focused on preserving access to economic resources provided by Moscow, which will be controlled by "Moscow gatekeepers."

"The Kremlin wants to gain more control over this region in the wake of the transition of power," Ismagambetov said. "And it most likely will."