By Ekaterina Janashia | 2026-02-26

For decades, the South Caucasus sat inside Russia's political orbit, serving as both a security buffer and an energy crossroads. That assumption has begun to crack. US Vice President JD Vance's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan earlier this month paired diplomacy with energy deals, infrastructure projects and security pledges -- Washington's clearest move yet to reshape control over one of Eurasia's most strategic transit zones.

The two-day trip marked the highest-level US diplomatic engagement in the South Caucasus since Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Georgia in 2009. Analysts say Washington is shifting from observer to active broker in relations between Yerevan and Baku, following a US-supported normalization process finalized in August 2025.

Beyond ceremonial meetings, the visit produced a series of economic and security commitments that could reduce Russian leverage while expanding Western investment across the region.

New trade corridor

The visit centered around the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, a proposed 43-km (27-mile) road-and-rail corridor through Armenia's southern Syunik province linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and onward to Turkey.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that all parties aim to finalize corridor agreements in the first half of 2026 and begin construction in the second half of the year. Azerbaijan is simultaneously building its connecting Horadiz-Aghband railway, targeting completion by end of 2026, with the full corridor potentially operational by 2028.

Unlike earlier proposals that envisioned Russian oversight, the corridor would be operated by a US-backed consortium. Under the agreement, the United States holds exclusive development rights for 99 years, with a US share of approximately 74% in the TRIPP Development Company, while Armenian sovereignty, law enforcement, customs and taxation authority remain intact.

Officials and analysts say the project could form a new east-west trade artery connecting Europe with Central Asian markets while bypassing both Russia and Iran -- and circumventing Georgia, whose ruling party's pivot toward Moscow and Beijing has made it an increasingly unreliable transit partner.

The project also reflects Washington's effort to use economic incentives as a stabilizing force.

"There is a lot of capital interested in this particular project," Vance told reporters in Yerevan on February 9. "People across the world see a good return in investing in the TRIPP project."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the project as "a model for the world of how you can open yourself up to economic activity and prosperity without in any way questioning or undermining your sovereignty and your territorial integrity."

The route could unlock billions in Western investment, particularly in the transport of critical minerals such as uranium and rare earth elements from Central Asia.

Energy ties deepen

Energy cooperation formed another cornerstone of the visit, particularly in Armenia.

Yerevan signed a "Section 123" agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation with the United States. Pashinyan said the country plans to replace its Soviet-era Metsamor nuclear plant, long operated with Russian fuel and technical support, with US small modular reactors.

"This agreement opens a new chapter," Pashinyan said. "It contributes to the diversification of our resources through safe and innovative technologies."

The project could generate about $5 billion in initial US exports and roughly $4 billion in long-term maintenance and fuel contracts. US officials have also framed the modernization as a safety issue, noting Metsamor sits in a seismically active zone.

A final decision on the replacement reactor is expected in 2026 or 2027. In the meantime, Pashinyan announced that Metsamor's operational life may be extended to 2046 to ensure continuity of supply during the transition.

Security signals in Baku

In Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev said relations had entered a "new phase" as he and Vance signed a Strategic Partnership Charter covering cooperation in energy, digital development, artificial intelligence and defense.

Vance confirmed that Washington would provide "new boats" to help Azerbaijan patrol its Caspian waters, a move analysts interpret as a signal to both Russia and Iran.

"Obviously, it's about possible dangers that may come from other Caspian basin countries," independent analyst Rauf Mirgadirov told RFE/RL on February 11.

The United States also approved an $11 million sale of V-BAT surveillance drones to Armenia, reinforcing Washington's effort to provide alternatives to Russian security support.

Russia's reduced influence in the region formed the backdrop to the visit.

Moscow's ability to act as the primary mediator has weakened as the war in Ukraine continues to strain its military and diplomatic resources.

"Russia is weakened," Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, told RFE/RL. "This was more than symbolism; it was a US planting of the flag. Moscow could do little more than watch."