By Olha Hembik | 2026-03-04

Lithuania is not waiting to find out what the next attack will look like. It might be a sabotaged bridge, a balloon over a runway, or a narrow pocket of forest seized by forces no one officially sent. The Baltic state is preparing for all of it.

Facing Russia and Belarus on two sides, Lithuania's security strategy now assumes that the next conflict may arrive in fragments. NATO membership provides guarantees, but the country's strong backing of Ukraine and its hard line toward Moscow have made it a frequent target of pressure from both states, officials and analysts say. Its geography -- bordering both countries and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave -- adds to the sense of vulnerability.

The pressure has intensified enough that on February 25, the prime ministers of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania -- Donald Tusk, Inga Ruginienė and Evika Siliņa -- signed a joint declaration committing to enhanced cooperation against hybrid threats along their shared borders, specifically naming irregular migration, smuggling and airspace violations as coordinated tactics requiring a unified response.

Bridges built to destroy

Lithuania is reinforcing infrastructure along its eastern borders as part of a wider regional defense plan approved in 2024. Engineers are preparing bridges near Belarus and Russia for rapid demolition to slow advancing forces. Trees are being planted near key routes, irrigation canals deepened to serve as anti-tank barriers, and dozens of storage points for defensive obstacles created.

"The Lithuanian Armed Forces have always communicated the same position -- first, that in the long term Russia's threat remains constant. This is one of the downsides the Lithuanian state has lived with for hundreds of years and, most likely, will continue to live with," Gintautas Ciunis, head of the armed forces' strategic communications department, said in December.

"Our country, the Republic of Lithuania, has no interests in common with the Russian Federation, because it poses a threat to the sovereignty of neighboring countries and the survival of the Ukrainian nation," Darius Sipavičius, a Lithuanian-born volunteer with Norwegian Support for Ukraine, told Kontur.

"It is essential to sever all ties with the terrorists, if necessary, including by blowing up bridges," he said.

Balloon incidents escalate

Hybrid pressure has already reached Lithuanian territory. On January 28, weather balloons launched from Belarus disrupted operations at Vilnius Airport. Officials said the surge may have "occurred with the knowledge of the Belarusian regime."

In 2025, Lithuanian border guards intercepted 564 balloons and 52 smuggling drones from Belarus. The airport disruptions alone -- closures totaling more than 60 hours since October -- diverted nearly 350 flights and affected more than 51,000 passengers. Authorities estimate losses at about €2.5 million. The campaign has also evolved: newer balloons fly higher and travel further, and officials say they can be equipped with sensors to probe air-defense gaps or conduct surveillance.

"The hybrid war is still going on. Balloons with contraband cigarettes are just what we found. But maybe someone is also sending weapons to the separatists," Vygintas Ušinskas, a Lithuanian volunteer and drone specialist, told Kontur.

He also warned that migration from Russia and Belarus raises security concerns.

"We [in Lithuania] have a lot of immigrants from Russia and Belarus. We don't know how many of them are 'little green men' who will start working when they are told to go ahead. They are sitting quietly now," he said.

The European Commission called the balloons a "hybrid threat that Europe will not tolerate." The United States echoed the message, with US Special Envoy John Coale saying Washington "stands in solidarity with Lithuania" and that Belarus "should prevent further such incidents."

Suwałki Gap concerns

Military planners remain focused on the Suwałki Gap -- the narrow corridor linking Lithuania to Poland -- widely seen as NATO's most vulnerable point. If attacks came simultaneously from Belarus and Kaliningrad, the Lithuanian city of Kaunas could become a key logistical chokepoint.

"There are more roads in Poland. It makes sense for the theater of war to be there. We only have a flank. All roads from east to west will be our line of defense," Ušinskas said.

Polish reserve officer and military analyst Jerzy Mazur said any pressure on the corridor would threaten the entire region.

"Any provocation or pressure on the Suwałki Gap is a direct threat to the entire region. NATO's eastern flank could be hit here. In the event of a real attack, Lithuania and other Baltic countries will find themselves cut off from the rest of Europe," Mazur said.

On January 25, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda proposed a joint Polish-Lithuanian cross-border training area that would turn the corridor into a shared NATO stronghold. Lithuania has committed €100 million to a brigade-sized facility at the heart of the Gap. The country has also finalized a deal to locally assemble 41 Leopard 2A8 tanks by 2030, and the US Congress approved $175 million for the Baltic Security Initiative in its 2026 defense budget.

Lithuania is purchasing air defense systems, radars and armored vehicles, investing in drones and training operators, and strengthening territorial defense forces. Demand for civilian weapons is also rising.

"We understand that a small country cannot withstand war. It can hold out for a certain amount of time," Ušinskas said, adding that Lithuania ultimately relies on NATO allies, particularly Poland.

"Russia has never attacked the strong. It attacks the weak and unprepared," he added.