By Olha Hembik | 2026-04-30

Poland shares hundreds of kilometers of border with Ukraine and Belarus. Keeping that airspace secure has never been more complicated -- or more urgent.

Starting this spring, the region is operating under strict aviation controls through June 9. Nighttime flights are banned outright. Only military aircraft and flights cleared from Depułtycze Królewskie Airport are exempt, and those must receive advance approval from air traffic control. The restricted zone runs from the ground to 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) up, leaving high-altitude passenger traffic unaffected.

The trigger is concrete: on the night of September 9, 2025, 19 Russian drones breached Polish airspace. Five flew on a direct heading toward a NATO military base. NATO forces shot all of them down.

"The Polish authorities want to reinforce this space to prevent incidents like that, and even if such incidents do occur, they want to have the ability to respond quickly using different air defense systems and aviation," Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, a political analyst and international relations expert, told Kontur. Without those controls, civilian aircraft and drones face real danger. "A civilian target could be struck by accident," he warned.

Tightening the perimeter

During daylight hours, the restrictions ease. Piloted aircraft may fly if the pilot files a flight plan in advance, keeps the transponder active, and stays in contact with dispatchers. Civilian drones may operate as long as they stay clear of Belarus's and Ukraine's air defense identification zones.

The Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA), which issued the rules, warned that entering an active restricted zone without meeting the requirements constitutes a violation of aviation law. Exceptions exist for state and medical flights, including emergency response, disaster relief and critical infrastructure defense, but only after clearance from the Air Operations Center (AOC) and the Air Component Command.

Zhelikhovsky said Poland has concluded it should not expect a de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war anytime soon. He also raised the possibility that Polish intelligence prompted the airspace decision after obtaining information about planned Russian mass strikes on Ukraine.

A pattern of hybrid attacks

Aerial threats are only part of the picture. Zhelikhovsky pointed to an explosion on November 16, 2025, when saboteurs blew up a section of railway between Warsaw and Dęblin, and near Lublin. Arson attacks began in 2024, including a fire at the Marywilska 44 shopping mall in Warsaw that destroyed 1,400 stores.

On March 12, an unidentified drone resembling a Russian Gerbera model turned up at a lignite mine in Galczyce in Poland's Greater Poland province. On March 18, Russia used Shahed drones to strike an energy facility in Novovolynsk, a Ukrainian city 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the Polish border.

Zhelikhovsky identified Rzeszów as a high-priority target. The city is a major logistics hub for Ukraine and hosts military contingents from the United States, Poland and other NATO allies, along with deployed air defense systems.

"This is the potential target for the aggressor country, and Poland grasps that it can't ignore this fact," he said.

He also cited Russia's January 8 strike on Lviv using an Oreshnik long-range ballistic missile, launched from the Kapustin Yar test site.

Lviv sits close to the Polish border. That did not stop the Kremlin from deploying a missile that, according to former Russian Strategic Missile Forces commander Sergei Karakayev, can carry a nuclear warhead and reach targets across Europe.

Poland's stakes in the conflict

Piotr Kulpa, a former Polish deputy minister of labor and social policy, framed Russia's moves as a live-fire test. Russia is "unlawfully testing hybrid war methods on the soil of a European state," Kulpa told Kontur, adding that the costs for the Kremlin could prove significant.

"We can secure extra support for Ukraine, both material and military. As a result, Europe will respond with Ukraine's help," he said.

Oleksandr Antoniuk, a Ukrainian political consultant currently serving in the Ukrainian military, noted that Russian air attacks on Ukraine's western regions bordering Poland have intensified. That pattern, he said, helps explain why Poland is hardening its eastern frontier -- now one of the most vulnerable stretches in Europe.

"Poland is abiding by specific norms and requirements to guarantee that the air corridors are unobstructed," Antoniuk told Kontur.

An unverified flying object in Polish airspace, he said, directly threatens the safety of civilian air travel.