By Sultan Musayev | 2026-07-02

For decades, Central Asia ran on Russian fuel. Now Russia is asking those same neighbors to fill its tank.

Moscow is negotiating with Kazakhstan to buy roughly 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline, Russia's standard grade, to ease a deepening domestic shortage. Reuters reported the talks June 24, citing four industry sources. The cause sits in the sky: a sustained campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

The damage has been severe. By late June, the strikes had cut Russian gasoline production by a quarter compared with a year earlier, Reuters reported. So one of the world's top fuel exporters now plans to restrict petroleum exports to partner countries and import gasoline by sea. The government has also told domestic refineries they can lower fuel quality standards for the home market.

Lines at the pump

The strain shows on the street. Vehicles form miles-long queues at filling stations across Russian cities, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that 55 of Russia's 83 regions face shortages or rationing. Some stations cap sales at 30 to 40 liters per vehicle and ban canisters. Others have run dry. Prices have jumped sharply and swing widely by region.

Officials are working to play down the crisis, casting it as a temporary problem driven partly by panic buying. In a June 28 state television interview, President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian drones had damaged Russia's energy infrastructure. He said the country faces a "certain deficit" of fuel but called the situation "not critical."

A reversal of roles

Moscow's pitch to Kazakhstan is a barter: Kazakh gasoline for Russian jet fuel. Industry insiders name the Condensate plant in western Kazakhstan as the likely supplier. It processes gas condensate from Russia's Taneco refinery in Tatarstan and holds fuel export quotas. But a June 12 drone strike forced Taneco to halt operations, which could leave Condensate without raw material.

Even a deal would fall short. Kazakhstan produces fuel on a far smaller scale than Russia, so analysts say it cannot rescue the Russian market.

The request inverts a long-standing arrangement. Kazakhstan has leaned on Russian petroleum imports for years to meet rising demand, especially in its north and east. Diesel demand climbs every spring and autumn for planting and harvest. When two Kazakh refineries went down for maintenance in 2017, Russian supplies carried the country through.

Now the dependence cuts both ways, and Kazakhstan expects to pay for it. Meruert Makhmutova, director of the Public Policy Research Center, said the Eurasian Economic Union agreed late last year to build a common market for oil and petroleum products by January 1, 2027. The Kazakh government also stopped regulating gasoline prices in April.

"Now rising gasoline prices in Russia will pull prices in Kazakhstan up with them," Makhmutova told Kontur.

The squeeze has already reached gas supplies. Drone strikes that shut Russia's Orenburg processing plant cut gas output at Kazakhstan's Karachaganak field by nearly a third, the country's Energy Ministry reported in late June. Karachaganak's raw gas had flowed to Orenburg for processing, then returned as natural and liquefied petroleum gas.

Nurlan Zhumagulov, director of the Energy Monitor public fund, warned that the harder blow may land later.

"Next year Kazakhstan could face a shortage of diesel fuel and jet kerosene, which it imported from Russia in large volumes annually -- this could become a serious problem," Zhumagulov told Kontur.

The crisis crosses borders

The pain is spreading across a region Moscow supplied for decades. In Kyrgyzstan, autogas prices have surged, and taxi drivers say their earnings no longer cover fuel. Authorities there admit a shortage of premium-grade AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline. In Tajikistan, where Russia supplied 84% of imported petroleum products in 2025, a diesel price hike is rippling through the economy. In Uzbekistan, a jet fuel shortage has forced Uzbekistan Airways to cancel some flights to Russia. Regional economists now urge governments to find other suppliers -- among them Azerbaijan, Iran and China.

The fuel shortage is one symptom of a war economy under pressure. In May 2026, drone strikes hit at least eight of Russia's 10 largest refineries. In June, attacks struck six more plants, including Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery, which supplies up to 70% of the capital region's gasoline. The facility partly suspended operations, dropping Russia's refining capacity to a 16-year low.

The forecast offers little relief. Alexander Martynov, an analyst at T-Investments, doubts the fuel market will stabilize soon.

"The presence and scale of the deficit will largely depend on the frequency and scope of potential future attacks on refineries," Martynov said in a T Bank blog post on June 22. He expects high seasonal demand in August and September to deepen the shortage, making the coming months harder than June.