By Olha Chepil | 2023-12-18

CHISINAU -- By banning imports of farm produce, reducing energy supplies and backing pro-Russian politicians, Russia is trying its best to destabilize Moldova, analysts say.

Even so, Moldova is still on its way to joining the European Union (EU).

The EU agreed December 14 to open formal membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.

Along with Ukraine, Moldova was granted candidate status by the EU in June 2022.

"Moldova's president, Maia Sandu, has said publicly that she's hoping to receive a decision about the EU this year," Alexey Buryachenko, a political scientist and executive director of the International Association of Small Cities, an association of local governments, told Kontur.

"Then the country will be granted full-fledged membership in the EU by 2030. They're now implementing all the required reforms," Buryachenko said.

The European Commission's Communication on EU Enlargement Policy publication states that Moldova has made significant progress in implementing the nine steps identified for it.

The Commission is the EU's politically independent executive arm.

Moldova's Cabinet of Ministers approved the National Action Plan for accession to the EU, which sets out 1,200 concrete laws and actions that are subject to implementation.

Sandu is holding talks with senior officials of all the EU member countries to persuade them to support Chisinau's bid.

'The next victim'

But the closer Moldova comes to accession, the more Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare.

During local elections in Moldova November 5, Russia resorted to bribery to secure votes for its favored candidates.

Sandu's party ended up winning in rural areas but suffered defeats in several big cities.

In December Moscow outlawed vegetable and fruit imports from Moldova.

"There's a huge number of risks that are related to Russia above all. If Moldova advances via obvious European integration, it's not out of the question that Russia could go beyond the bounds of internal destabilization and initiate something more dangerous," Valery Honcharuk, a political analyst at Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv, told Kontur.

The Kremlin, which has long exerted strong pressure on Moldova, has now become more sinister in its rhetoric.

"Moldova is destined to be the next victim in the hybrid war against Russia unleashed by the West," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an apparent threat at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council on November 30 in North Macedonia.

Lavrov's remarks against Moldova may embolden pro-Russian actors to attempt to sow political instability and division in Moldova, the Institute for the Study of War noted in a December 2 report.

"Russia conducted a likely campaign to destabilize Moldova in early 2023, and Russia may seek to revamp these efforts to distract international attention from the war in Ukraine," the report said.

"Moldova's European integration isn't just a matter of economic reforms even though that's also crucial for the country. External risks and a war with Russia are a more formidable obstacle," Honcharuk said.

Transnistria

The main leverage Russia can marshal to pressure Moldova is the breakaway region of Transnistria, a point of destabilization. Russia has used Transnistria before as a point of entry for the "Russian World" and will use it again, say analysts.

The Russian World refers to a worldview that sees Russia as not a mere nation-state but a civilization-state.

"Nearly everyone in Transnistria is pro-Russian. It's not because they're fanatics, but rather because Russia offers them many economic exemptions related to gas," Buryachenko said.

"The Russian army has a presence there, and the Russian propaganda machine is active," he said.

Both NATO and Moldova have repeatedly told Russia it must withdraw its army from Transnistria. There are about 15,000 Russian personnel in the enclave, including locals, draftees and reservists. By comparison, Moldova's army has just more than 5,000 personnel.

Amid its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin had plans to completely seize the south of the country, including Odesa province, and then enter Moldova through Transnistria to open another potential front, say analysts.

"Moldova needs to adopt a strategy and cut the umbilical cord connecting Transnistria to the Kremlin. And when the economic ties are severed, the political ones will be too," Buryachenko said.

Sandu is planning to have Moldova join the EU in two phases. If the problem of Transnistria is not resolved before accession, the right bank of the Dniester river will join the EU first, followed by the left bank later.

"When the people living on the left bank see how life improves, they’ll also want to be in the EU. I would hazard to say that they want it now, but Russia is standing in the way," Sandu said on Radio Moldova on November 13.

Gagauzia

Gagauzia is another region in Moldova that stands out for its pro-Russian sentiment.

According to law, Gagauzia has the right to secede from Moldova. The Gagauz vote exclusively for pro-Russian parties and live and breathe the myths of Russian propaganda.

"Gagauzia opposes the EU and supports integration into Russia. They're already saying there that Gagauzia can proclaim its independence if movement to the EU is obvious. At the moment no one can say exactly what we need to do with this region," said Honcharuk the political analyst.

Russia recently succeeded in getting a new pro-Russian governor of Gagauzia elected: Yevgenia Gutsul, formerly of the Șor Party.

She has branded herself as an independent since the Moldovan Constitutional Court banned Șor in June.

Șor, which received financing from Russia, was led by politician Ilan Shor, who was sentenced in absentia in Moldova to 15 years in prison for bank fraud and has been hiding in Israel for four years.

"The party is banned now, but on top of that, Șor is trying to influence political processes by supporting a range of political candidates and political movements -- and Russia is paying for all of that," Serhiy Gerasymchuk, deputy executive director of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, told Kontur.

Even as pro-Russian forces and propaganda are undermining Moldova, the Moldovan government is trying to combat Russia's efforts. Moldova has signed on to four of six packages of sanctions the EU imposed on Russia.

In addition, Sandu recently announced that communities where pro-Russian candidates won elections will not receive funds that come from the EU.