By Galina Korol | 2024-03-07

KYIV -- The downing of two Russian air force Beriev A-50 "Mainstay" airborne early warning and control aircraft since the start of the year is a sign that Moscow is having difficulty protecting the airspace it controls, according to intelligence sources.

Ukrainian forces shot down the first A-50 aircraft near the Sea of Azov on January 14, while also damaging an Ilyushin Il-22 bomber–airborne command post. The Il-22 landed safely.

The second A-50 was destroyed February 23, Ukrainian air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on Telegram.

"The A-50 with call sign Bayan [accordion] has flown its last! To the occupiers, Happy Defender of the Fatherland Day," Oleshchuk wrote, referring to a Russian holiday celebrating the country's armed forces the same day.

The plane was downed between the Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar, Ukrainian military sources told the BBC.

Since the loss of the second aircraft, Russian forces have likely grounded the rest of their A-50 fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations, according to a British Defense Intelligence assessment dated March 2.

"The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews," it said.

"This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine," it added.

To bridge the gap, Russia may have to repurpose other aircraft or "bring previously mothballed A-50 airframes back into service," it said.

'Significant' loss

The loss of the A-50 is "significant" as the aircraft "is critical to the Russian air surveillance picture over Ukraine," Defense Intelligence said on X (formerly Twitter) on January 17.

Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s, including a number of modernized A-50Us, in active service, The Warzone reported March 1.

In addition to the two combat losses, another A-50 was damaged in a drone attack while at a base in Belarus last year; its current status is unknown, leaving six or seven aircraft in active service.

Each aircraft is estimated to cost about $330 million.

Sanctions make it difficult to produce new A-50Us, which reportedly rely on Western technology.

The loss of two crews -- namely the 10 or 11 radar operators of each aircraft -- is at least as devastating.

The operators on board studied at university for at least five years and "had 10-15 years of practical experience," said Ivan Stupak, a former Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) officer and analyst with the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

"There aren't many people like that in Russia," he told Kontur.

Considering all the factors, it is no exaggeration to say the A-50 is a unique flying vessel, according to Oleg Zhdanov, a reservist colonel on the Ukrainian general staff.

"It is the ears and eyes of the air force... This plane can guide aircraft to targets. It can highlight them with its radar. Planes see [the targets] and can attack. It can also provide intelligence to aircraft," he told Kontur.

'New stage of war'

The downing of the two A-50s has been an apparent embarrassment for Russia. In both incidents, Russian sources claimed friendly fire was involved.

"[Russian Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu can't explain such losses to [President Vladimir] Putin," said Zhdanov. "That's why they insist that it is friendly fire."

"After the A-50 was destroyed and the Il-22 took damage over the Sea of Azov [in January], we can talk about a new stage of the war in which the Russian air force will be squeezed out of Ukrainian airspace," said Alexander Kovalenko, Odesa-based military and political observer with InfoResist.

"The Russian air force is being squeezed out of Ukrainian airspace just as the Russian fleet was squeezed out of the northwestern Black Sea, and later had to entirely flee from occupied Sevastopol," he told Kontur.

Kovalenko also doubts the "friendly fire" narrative.

"There is a friend-or-foe identification system," he explained. "Aircraft like the A-50 and Il-22 fly along established routes that are well known to everyone, and that means the deep, very deep rear."

"Additionally, the A-50 is not a fighter: radar systems show how drastically different this massive object is from a tactical aircraft. Russian 'experts' stress that Ukraine simply had no means to shoot down the A-50 at such distances."

"However, videos published online clearly record Russian air defenses acting against two missiles, one of which was intercepted but the other was not," Kovalenko said.

"So, according to the Russian narrative, Russian air defenses acted against Russian air defense missiles?"