By Galina Korol | 2025-08-18

Belarus is tearing up its martial law playbook.

On August 5, the Defense Ministry sent parliament a bill to replace the existing system with one built around a new military doctrine with Moscow.

The proposal, shared on the ministry's Telegram channel, would redefine presidential and military powers, rewrite the army's missions and update the list of "military threats." It also makes any armed attack on the Union State -- Belarus's political and military alliance with Russia -- grounds for declaring martial law.

Officially, Belarus says it is only amending legislation. But against the backdrop of Russia's war in Ukraine and the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercises with Moscow, analysts view the move as a step toward deeper integration with Russia's military. The changes effectively codify Belarus's willingness to join a conflict if Russia claims it is the victim of "aggression."

Systematic preparation for war

Uladzimir Zhyhar, a representative for BelPol, a group of ex-Belarusian security officials opposing President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, told Kontur the bill is part of the regime's systematic preparations for war.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said, Minsk has passed dozens of measures that point to potential military involvement and regulate the civilian sector in wartime.

Unlike Moscow, which often changes laws mid-conflict, Lukashenka is trying to resolve issues in advance to ensure quick responses in a crisis, Zhyhar said.

"The likelihood of such a conflict in the future is pretty high," he added, calling parliamentary approval a formality.

"Belarus's parliament isn't an independent body," Zhyhar said. "Everything that shows up there is initially an idea from above, and there needs to be a certain process according to the constitution that is just for show."

He noted that in early 2025, Russia and Belarus signed a Union State collective security pact treating an attack on one as an attack on both. He said the bill fits that agreement and could pave the way for Belarusian troops to fight in conflicts under the Union State's banner.

A hidden agenda

Viktor Yahun, a reserve major general in Ukraine's Security Service, said the bill is Lukashenka's attempt to impose order in Belarus.

"They have constant drills, meaning that the Belarusian troops don't leave the training grounds, and that goes a little beyond the bounds of their peaceful laws," Yahun told Kontur.

He said the ability to declare martial law at will would let authorities tighten control through searches, confiscations, intimidation and longer sentences for dissenters.

Retired Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of Ukraine's General Staff, said the bill could give Russian President Vladimir Putin another "element of pressure," especially as talks over ending the war gain momentum.

He said it could be used to threaten Ukraine with a northern front or pressure Poland and the Baltic states.

Lukashenka's moves go beyond legislation. Belarus is ramping up military production, Zhyhar said, with defense firms modernizing and working with Pakistan and Iran on explosives, while China supplies munitions-filling equipment.

But Belarus still cannot produce all the parts needed for its military industry domestically; in some areas, local production covers no more than 80% of requirements. That shortfall forces Lukashenka to seek components, spare parts, assemblies, mechanisms and equipment from more developed countries, according to him. The latest EU sanctions package is severely undermining those plans.

Pre-war maneuvers

The Zapad-2025 joint maneuvers between Moscow and Minsk are set for September 12-16 in Belarus. The two governments say the drills will test their armies' capabilities and "readiness to repel possible aggression," but past experience suggests such exercises can precede military action.

"Both Crimea and Donbas started with exercises and then transitioned to combat operations," Romanenko said.

Yahun warned that any massing of forces should be taken seriously, as troops could move toward Ukraine or NATO borders after the drills.

"They'll go to western Belarus and say, from here it's less than 150 kilometers to Kaliningrad," he said.

There are no signs yet of a large Russian troop deployment to Belarus, only Belarusian units moving toward training grounds, according to BelPol.

Zhyhar said Lukashenka and Putin view Zapad-2025 as a test of NATO's reaction and did not rule out "small drone flights" into NATO countries to gauge their response.

Neighbors prepare

Belarus's neighbors have no illusions about the Zapad-2025 drills. Poland plans a large-scale response with its Iron Defender maneuvers, involving about 34,000 troops from all branches of its military and NATO allies. The exercises will take place on land, in the air and in the Baltic Sea, the Polish General Staff said in July.

Estonia is reinforcing its borders with new defense lines, while Latvia hosted NATO's Swift Response 2025 drills in May to prepare for possible aggression from Russia or Belarus. Lithuania is deploying air defense systems along the Belarusian border, creating a dense defensive shield.

Air surveillance is also increasing. On August 4, five German Eurofighter jets arrived at Poland's Mińsk Mazowiecki base to help monitor NATO airspace. The supersonic aircraft can intercept enemy planes and strike ground targets. Germany also sent 150 troops to Poland for rapid response in case of an airspace breach.

The German air force called the deployment a clear sign of alliance solidarity within NATO and a credible deterrent. With possible provocations from Zapad-2025 looming, the move signals NATO's readiness to defend its eastern flank.