By Kontur | 2024-12-11

Russia, which played a key role in keeping the just-ousted Syrian regime in power, stands to lose its prized military bases in Syria and a key revenue stream from its investments, including in the oil, gas and phosphate industry.

While the US-led international coalition worked to keep the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) in check, Russian anti-ISIS efforts were largely a front for the Kremlin's efforts to protect its own economic interests and investments in Syria.

These investments are now at risk.

As the Syrian embassy in Moscow raised the opposition flag -- an extreme embarrassment for the Kremlin -- Russia is now in the humiliating position of having to ask the Syrian groups it once bombed indiscriminately for clemency.

It is having to conduct "negotiations" with these groups to secure the safety of its citizens and embassy staff, Russian spy chief Sergei Naryshkin said.

And as the Syrian regime's notorious prisons are liberated and evidence of its war crimes come to light, its co-conspirators in the Kremlin have been not-so-quietly blaming Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad -- who fled to Moscow -- for the whole debacle.

Russian military bloggers have turned on al-Assad, blaming him for failing to create a strong professional army, even as Tahrir al-Sham built itself into a formidable force, the Washington Post and other outlets reported.

But in reality, Moscow's war effort in Ukraine has drained its ability to support Syria.

Russian bases at risk

Further aggravating matters, Russia faces the "most likely" prospect of having to withdraw from its naval base at Tartus and air base at Hmeimim, political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov told AFP.

These bases in Syria "play a role in Russia's efforts to project power not only inside Syria but in the broader region, including in Libya, Sudan, and other parts of Africa," Soufan Center global security analysts said.

If Russia loses this warm-water naval base and air base, it loses its military capabilities in the region and potentially further afield, analysts said.

"The damage to Moscow's ability to maneuver in Africa and the Mediterranean may have a strategic impact on Russian influence across the world," said Atlantic Council research fellow R. Clarke Cooper.

Amid the rapid reversal of Russia's fortunes in Syria and the wider impact of these losses, observers say al-Assad may receive a cooler welcome from his once warm ally and supporter than he may have once expected.