By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-04-30

Russia, facing mounting global isolation and the collapse of its longtime foothold in Syria, is renewing its long-held push for a naval base in Sudan -- a high-stakes gambit that may signal more strategic overreach than strength.

The base would give Moscow a critical perch on the Red Sea, a chokepoint for global trade and energy flows. It would also expand its reach into Africa and the Middle East, at least on paper.

Such a move, according to the Robert Lansing Institute, a Washington, DC-based security think tank, would mark "a landmark development in post-Cold War geopolitics," significantly expanding Russia's military footprint potentially.

In February, then-Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf Ahmed al-Sharif said Sudan was in "complete agreement" with Russia and that the plan faced "no obstacles," during a news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.

Al-Sharif was not foreign minister for long. Gen. Abdel al-Fattah al-Burhan hired him last November and fired him April 17. He had served less than five months.

Al-Burhan leads the Transitional Sovereignty Council and controls much, but not all, of Sudan.

A country in crisis

The remarks by al-Sharif suggested that Russia's long-gestating plans to construct a base at Port Sudan were finally moving forward after years of delays.

Still, despite al-Sharif's confidence, the Kremlin has not confirmed the signing of a deal. Nor is it clear that Sudan, a country gripped by civil war and political chaos, is in any position to fulfill such an agreement.

Negotiations between Moscow and Khartoum began in 2017 under then-President Omar al-Bashir. The sides reached a preliminary agreement in 2020 but never implemented it. Since then, Sudan has descended into conflict, with the army battling the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a war that erupted in April 2023.

It is now the world's worst humanitarian crisis, says the United Nations. At least 20,000 inhabitants have been killed and 12 million displaced, including about 3 million who have fled into neighboring countries.

Al-Burhan's authority over Sudan is contested not just by the RSF but also by opposition groups and civilians who reject the unelected military leadership.

As a result, al-Sharif's statement that "there are no obstacles" to a base deal is far from universally accepted.

Other partnerships crumble

In fact, the power struggle inside Sudan is deepening. On April 15, RSF commander Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo announced that his forces would form their own government in areas they control, potentially splitting the country in two.

The Sudanese military has already seen foreign partnerships unravel. Sudan last November canceled a $6 billion port deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) because of allegations that the UAE had been arming the RSF. That collapse highlights how quickly external agreements can fall apart amid Sudan's internal chaos.

In addition to political instability, the logistics of building a naval base in a war zone are daunting.

"Since the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, there may be no more strategically important body of water in the world than the Red Sea," analyst James McGregor noted in a March 6 article for the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank.

But McGregor underscored the operational challenges Russia would face.

"There is also the question of overland supply from Khartoum to Port Sudan, which essentially follows a single highway that has been blocked in the past by Beja protestors," he wrote, referring to a tribal group in eastern Sudan with a history of economic and political grievances.

Russian setbacks

Beyond the logistical headaches posed by road transport, the Russians would face other challenges as well, explained Paton Nikiforov, a Middle East political analyst. Sudan lacks a reliable power plant capable of powering a large new naval facility, he said.

"It's hard to say whether Moscow, fixated on restoring bases as an essential attribute of a military power, initially assessed the risks or simply acted on inertia," Nikiforov wrote in an article published on February 25 in Riddle Russia, an online journal.

"Even before the change of power in Syria and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, supplying a facility was no simple task. Now, it's even more complex."

Russia's desire to expand its influence in Africa and the Middle East has taken on greater urgency in light of recent setbacks.

The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last December has cast doubt on the future of Russia's naval and air facilities in Syria. At the same time, Moscow remains deeply bogged down in its war in Ukraine, further stretching military and economic resources.