By Olha Chepil | 2025-05-27

KYIV -- Under the watch of a Russian warship and cloaked in digital deception, three massive cargo vessels are slipping south through the Baltic Sea, marking the largest Russian naval convoy in the region since the early days of the Ukraine war.

The ships reportedly are headed to Libya to support Russian paramilitaries there.

Monitored closely by NATO, the ships, each displacing more than 10,000 tons and suspected of carrying military cargo, were first reported by Germany's Kieler Nachrichten on May 2. Their passage raises fresh concerns about Moscow's strategic intentions and use of false signals to obscure maritime movements.

Composition and route of the convoy

Three Russian freighters -- Siyanie Severa, Baltic Leader and Patria -- departed the port of Baltiysk around April 30, reportedly carrying military cargo and traveling under naval escort, according to Kateryna Yaresko of the SeaKrime project at the Myrotvorets Center.

The convoy was accompanied by the Russian corvette Boikiy, which broadcast a Chinese identity via its automatic identification system (AIS) but flew Russia's St. Andrew's flag. The Russian crew used false AIS signals, a known tactic of the maritime "shadow fleet," to disguise the convoy as Chinese, say analysts.

The shadow fleet is Russia's assemblage of freighters that carry cargoes, such as oil, in defiance of international sanctions. Often they are registered to other countries with few regulations on shipping safety and transparency.

This is the first recorded instance of a Russian corvette broadcasting under a Chinese identity, Yaresko told Kontur, calling it "an extraordinary occurrence." Russia previously avoided drawing attention in the Baltic but now appears to be escorting military shipments with overt naval support, she said.

Moscow's concerns

The use of a military escort suggests Moscow is increasingly concerned about potential surveillance or interception, analysts say.

"They probably don't want the cargo to be intercepted or even seen. And to prevent this from happening, they dispatched the corvette," Maksym Palamarchuk, an analyst with Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, told Kontur.

He noted the presence of the warship raises the stakes: if law enforcement vessels approach, the corvette would likely block any boarding attempts.

Satellite imagery and vessel draft data indicate the ships are fully loaded, each likely carrying about 10,000 tons. Yaresko said the vessels are well suited for transporting heavy military equipment such as armored vehicles and tanks.

"We know that they are loaded specifically with military cargo," she said.

According to Kieler Nachrichten, the cargo ships Baltic Leader and Patria have stern ramps and decks for vehicles.

"The use of these roll-on/roll-off ships suggests that Russian military vehicles are also being transported," Joachim Krause, director of the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University in Germany, told Kieler Nachrichten May 2.

Potential goals

The convoy is heading to Libya, presumably with weapons and ammunition for the Wagner Group mercenary force or its successor in Africa -- the Africa Corps, say analysts.

"Libya could be the target. Russia is currently very active in the Sahel region. From bases in Libya, it can expand its influence in the region," said Krause.

From there, Russia can deliver military equipment easily to Sudan, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso.

"This convoy is directly connected to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A state company has been created, and it is carrying out a shipment for the Russian Navy," Pavlo Lakiychuk, a program director at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, told Kontur.

According to an April 3 investigation by Meduza titled "Surveilling Putin's 'Shadow Fleet,'" Russia is constructing parallel logistics chains outside official channels. Unflagged civilian vessels using falsified AIS signals have become central to this covert network, enabling sanctions evasion and clandestine arms transfers.

NATO, Western countries react

In response to the convoy, NATO countries rapidly ramped up naval reconnaissance. The German and Danish navies, alongside Germany's Federal Police, have tracked the vessels, with NATO continuing to monitor the operation closely.

"NATO is constantly monitoring. Indeed, it's recording these movements. It is escorting this convoy, but so far it has not taken any active measures," said Yaresko.

NATO has significantly expanded its presence in the Baltic since 2024, establishing the Commander Task Force Baltic headquarters in Rostock, Germany, that October. The move reflects the region's growing strategic importance.

Through initiatives like Baltic Sentry and Nordic Warden, NATO is employing advanced surveillance tools, including artificial intelligence, to track maritime activity, particularly movements linked to Russia's shadow fleet.

"Aircraft, surface ships, border forces and coast guards from Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, Poland -- all the countries with access to the Baltic Sea -- are involved," Capt. 1st Rank (ret.) Volodymyr Zablotsky, a Ukrainian naval analyst and Defense Express correspondent, told Kontur.

"Where it is feasible, there are all the legal grounds to both monitor and halt [Russian shadow fleet ships]."

Discussions are intensifying over possible sanctions and restrictions on Russian-flagged vessels transporting military cargo, said Zablotsky.

Insurance could be a key pressure point, he said, since many shadow fleet ships lack coverage from major global insurers.

"They could be stopped at the entrance to the Baltic Sea by the straits near Denmark," Zablotsky added. "If Russia wants to escort its cargo with a corvette, let them. Let them burn fuel. Let them go back and forth, wearing down engines. NATO still has more forces."