By Olha Chepil | 2024-04-26

KYIV -- Ukraine is opening new embassies in Africa in an effort to gain broader presence on the continent to counter Moscow's influence, say diplomatic observers.

On April 17, the Ukrainian embassy in Botswana opened for business. A few days earlier, new embassies opened in Mozambique and Côte d'Ivoire, and before that, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

These openings signal that Ukraine is looking for cooperation, said Marta Oliynyk-Domocko, an analyst and Africanist at the Global Ukraine Foundation.

"Africa means voices on the international stage. It means political support. It means economic support. Increasing the diplomatic presence is Ukraine's number one task for establishing cooperation with African countries," Oliynyk-Domocko told Kontur.

Following the full-scale Russian invasion, Kyiv has become noticeably more active on the diplomatic front to maximize the number of sympathetic countries and to convey what is really happening in Ukraine during the Russian invasion.

This is especially true for Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East.

Ukrainian diplomats have plans for 10 new embassies in Africa, bringing their total to 20.

"Launching an embassy network makes it possible to spread information influence, interact with elites and the local population, and deepen Ukraine's activities there. We need to show African countries that Ukraine can be a security guarantor for them," said Yuriy Oliynyk of Kyiv, co-founder of the Center for African Studies and director of research programs at Ukrainian Studios for Strategic Studies, a non-governmental think tank.

Building relations from scratch

Before the war, Africa was not one of Ukraine's foreign policy priorities. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow inherited all diplomatic missions on the continent. Kyiv had to build relations with Africa from scratch.

In the two years of the war, Ukraine has made more progress in relations with African countries than in the previous 30 years.

President Vladimir Zelenskyy has held talks with 20 African heads of state and tasked the Ukrainian diplomatic service with strengthening diplomacy on the continent. He plans to visit South Africa soon.

"I strongly believe that the establishment of the Ukrainian diplomatic mission in Gaborone will allow seamless and efficient interaction between our countries and coordinate our stances on significant initiatives at the UN [United Nations] and other international institutions," said Ukrainian special representative for the Middle East and Africa Maxim Subh at the opening of the Ukrainian embassy in Botswana on April 17.

Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had embassies in only 10 of Africa's 54 countries. They could not adequately represent Ukrainian interests on the continent, said Oliynyk-Domocko.

"That's very few. Imagine a single Ukrainian embassy for all of southern Africa. It's impossible to set up cooperation when you simply lack the hands and the people," said Oliynyk-Domocko.

Fighting for influence

The humanitarian project Grain from Ukraine, which has provided hundreds of thousands of tons of grain to African countries since November 2022, plays a significant role in improving Ukraine's position on the continent, say analysts.

Expanding Ukrainian exports of goods and services to Africa could ease Ukraine's potential postwar economic crisis and could drive future growth. But the battle for this market remains. Africa's role in the world is growing, and Kyiv and Moscow are fighting for influence on the continent.

Russia is also trying to strengthen its presence on the continent. Like Ukraine, Russian diplomats are opening embassies, in addition to the 40 already operating, said Oliynyk-Domocko.

"Russia is significantly ahead of Ukraine, and the Russians are not going to stop. They, too, plan to open additional embassies and consulates. Everything that we do, they are also doing in parallel. They are increasing cooperation," she said.

Russia's current focus in Africa is on the Sahel countries, where Russia-friendly regimes have emerged. Wagner Group mercenaries played a significant role in this. The Wagnerites also operate in Libya, thus projecting Russian influence there. In exchange for the mercenaries' services, Russia gains access to gold deposits, precious stones and rare metals.

"For Russia, it's very important to show that it is not isolated, that all is well with it. This demonstrates to Western states that 'even though you are trying to isolate us, we still remain a key partner in the world,'" Maksym Palamarchuk, director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine, told Kontur.

'Africa is very important'

Russia's influence on Africa is evident in the refusal of every African country to impose sanctions on Russia, say analysts. Nor have African countries supported convening a special tribunal on Russian crimes in Ukraine. Many African states avow neutrality.

"Russia is currently using Africa to show that sanctions do not work and that everyone is trading with it, and that Putin is gathering not only Russian lands but also the global south," said Oliynyk-Domocko.

Kyiv does not yet have meaningful levers of influence in the region, especially economic ones.

Ukraine needs to expand its economic presence in African countries soon, analysts say. Examples include Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania and Tanzania, which consume Ukrainian goods and commodities.

Ukraine exports grain, ferrous metals, seeds and fruits of oil-bearing plants, and animal and vegetable fats and oils to Africa.

"Africa is very important. It's a population of 1.4 billion people. It's an economic factor. And now, also a food security factor," said Oliynyk.

However, no matter what Ukraine's ambitions are, it should not expect instantaneous results, analysts say. Developing partnerships with African countries requires patience.

"The most important thing is to limit Russian exports there. After all, all that money gets converted into missiles, and then they kill Ukrainians," said Oliynyk-Domocko.