By Kontur | 2025-07-23

Without warning or explanation, the Kremlin has scrapped its two biggest military expos -- Army-2025 and the MAKS air show -- events once choreographed to sell tanks, dazzle foreign buyers and project power.

The quiet cancellations have fueled speculation over the condition of the country's military-industrial complex and the internal reckoning unfolding within the Ministry of Defense.

Organizers of the Army-2025 arms fair, scheduled for August 11–14 at Patriot Expo in Kubinka, Moscow province, told state media less than a month prior to the planned opening that planners had "postponed [it] to a later date," without providing a reason or setting a new timeline.

Meanwhile, MAKS, an air and space show last held in 2021, was called off.

"MAKS won't happen this year. It's being postponed to next year. You understand what times we're living in," said Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov in a June interview with TASS.

The abrupt retreat from these legacy exhibitions comes at a moment when Russia's ability to deliver on the promise of advanced military hardware -- both to its own forces and foreign buyers -- has been openly called into question.

End of the Shoigu showcase

Army-2025 would have marked the 11th iteration of the high-profile forum launched under then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in 2015. The event grew into a key vehicle for projecting the image of a modern, globally competitive Russian military. With elaborate static displays and dynamic weapon demonstrations, the forum aimed to boost arms sales, rally patriotic sentiment and secure international prestige.

But the cancellation marks the symbolic collapse of that narrative. As one Russian news blog, Main Story: The Big Picture, said in its column earlier in July, "This is not just the cancellation of an event but the public crucifixion of a whole era named for Shoigu."

The article sparked an outpouring of reaction, drawing nearly 1,000 comments, many of them harshly critical of the once-revered defense minister who was fired in 2024.

"How people admired Shoigu before the SMO ["Special Military Operation" in Ukraine]! They said he was a genius organizing brilliant parades, praying before icons, running flashy tank biathlons," wrote a commenter named Oleg Gogol. "If not for the SMO, he'd still be considered some great genius."

Another reader, Tatiana B., reflected on Shoigu's lack of military background: "It's often like this with us -- one thing on the surface, another behind the curtain... There's nothing worse than when a cobbler bakes pies, and a baker makes boots."

In 2024, the event showcased 28,000 weapons and equipment samples and, according to organizers, led to almost 500 billion RUB ($6.4 billion) in signed contracts. Yet even then, the management shortened the event from a week to three days and closed it to the general public.

The primary reason for the cancellation is that "the industry has neither the people nor the time for this," Ivan Karpov, an independent Russian military analyst, said in an interview with The Insider.

He also cited security concerns: "There is certainly a security threat, especially since Kubinka has already been hit."

On May 7, the air base in Kubinka -- home to elite aerobatic teams like the Strizhi and Russkie Vityazi -- came under attack by Ukrainian drones. With the war now encroaching on domestic sites, hosting a massive public exhibition has become a risk the Kremlin seems unwilling to take.

Nothing to show?

Beyond logistics and security, analysts suggest another reason for the cancellations: Russia's military has little left to parade.

"We literally don't have tanks, plain and simple," military analyst Ruslan Leviyev told Radio Lenta this month.

According to the analyst, generals fear that if they admit to equipment shortages, they could be held personally responsible. Leadership might question how supplies vanished despite earlier reports claiming everything was fine --implying that the fault lies with them. Facing the risk of punishment or dismissal, many commanders prefer to conceal the true extent of the crisis.

"All just to save their own skins and hold on to their cushy posts," Leviyev said.

Indeed, many of the "breakthrough" systems showcased in past arms fairs -- such as the T-14 Armata tank, the Su-57 fighter jet and the Boomerang armored vehicle -- never reached serial production or meaningful deployment. Meanwhile, front-line troops face shortages of basic gear, from radios and helmets to tourniquets and winter clothing.

Military analyst Alexander Kovalev pointed to the collapse of Russia's long-range aviation as further evidence.

"The Tu-160 bombers are hardly used for their intended role -- they're barely even worth mentioning," he told Radio Lenta. "These aircraft are extremely expensive and highly unreliable under current conditions. At this point, they are no longer being produced anywhere in Russia."

Russia's aerospace sector tells a similar story. The MAKS air show, traditionally held every other year in Zhukovsky, Moscow province, was once a showcase of cutting-edge Russian aircraft and a magnet for foreign investment. The 2021 edition featured more than 800 companies from 56 countries.

But since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, MAKS has disappeared from the calendar. The government cancelled it in 2023 and again in 2024, when it was planning to make up for the 2023 cancellation. Now 2025 is off as well.

While officials cite the "current situation," analysts point to deeper causes: lack of export-ready products, personnel drain and the effects of international sanctions.

Defense exports have plummeted -- from almost $15 billion in 2021 to just $3 billion in 2023.

After three and a half years of war, the landscape has shifted dramatically, with conditions now described as nothing short of dire, military analyst Yan Matveyev noted. The Black Sea Fleet is all but wiped out, and Russian troops are incurring severe losses across every front line, he said.

He pointed to a recent assault near a village that involved just three vehicles -- a stark contrast to last summer, when Russian forces conducted attacks with columns of 20 to 30 vehicles in areas like Kurakhove and the Pokrovsk front.

"It's mostly foot soldiers now -- and naturally, they're taking massive casualties," Matveyev told Radio Lenta.