By Murad Rakhimov | 2025-11-04

In Russia, the draft is about to lose its seasons. A new bill, first approved by the State Duma on September 29, will turn conscription into a year-round operation, ending the Soviet-era rhythm of "spring and fall" call-ups and making it possible to summon recruits at any time.

That same day, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree launching the next draft and discharging those who completed their service. Between October and December, the government plans to conscript 135,000 men ages 18 to 30, according to the decree.

Starting January 1, the draft is expected to become a continuous process operating year-round.

Anyone can be drafted

Officials say the new bill is meant to "streamline the draft" and ease pressure on conscription offices, which experience "peak activity" twice a year.

Under the proposed measure, medical and psychological evaluations, as well as conscription board meetings, will take place year-round. Recruits will be sent to duty stations between April 1 and July 15 and again from October 1 to December 31.

Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence, said the measure reflects Russia's growing difficulty recruiting troops for its war in Ukraine. He cited two main reasons: heavy battlefield losses and the increased reliance on infantry as Ukrainian drones render equipment vulnerable.

Ilkhamov told Kontur that the Kremlin avoided announcing another large-scale mobilization out of fear it could "destabilize the country." Instead, spreading conscription across the year allows authorities to draft smaller numbers continuously.

He added that the shift will likely heighten public anxiety. In the past, young men could "breathe a little easier" between draft periods, but now "anyone can be drafted anytime," he said.

Poor regions bear the burden

Dmitry Dubrovsky, a lecturer at Charles University in Prague, called the year-round draft an attempt to soften the impact of mobilization by stretching it over time.

He told Kontur that while conscripts are not officially sent to the front, many are pressured to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.

Dubrovsky said the motivation to enlist often comes from poverty, not patriotism. For men from poor regions, a military contract offers one of the few ways to improve their financial standing.

"Most often they sell themselves into this slavery," he said, noting that what someone earns in Moscow in three months could take years to make in the provinces.

The Kremlin, he added, increasingly relies on paid service, offering bonuses, benefits and loans of up to 1 million RUB (about $12,000) to attract recruits.

Rights activist Alexander Kim told Kontur the legislation clearly targets low-income and less-educated Russians who see few alternatives to enlistment. Rural areas and autonomous republics, among the country's poorest regions, provide the bulk of these recruits.

By contrast, better-educated and wealthier urban residents remain largely unmoved by state incentives and avoid volunteer service altogether.

A draft bureau on your phone

Russia continues to tighten control over draft-age men through new laws and digital tools. The government has launched electronic draft notices and an online registry of those eligible for service, though lawyers say the system, which went live in May 2025, remains only partially functional.

A decree issued August 29 also revised medical examination rules and the official "schedule of diseases," which determines fitness for service. The changes impose stricter requirements to confirm medical exemptions, making it harder for recruits to avoid conscription.

Those who ignore or fail to open an electronic draft notice face penalties after 27 days, including bans on driving, real estate transactions, loans and investments.

Kim said the moves reflect ongoing staffing shortages in the Russian army.

"I don't think the authorities are doing all of this in order to carry out a large-scale draft all year round. I think they're doing it so they'll have that option if they need it," he said.

New wave of relocation

Russia's electronic draft notice system has made it harder for draft-age men to leave the country. Those listed in the registry are automatically barred from crossing the border.

So far, the restrictions apply mainly to Moscow and a few regions, but the new year-round draft law could prompt another wave of emigration. It would follow the two major exoduses after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 -- first by those opposing the war, then by those fleeing the "partial" mobilization that fall. Researchers estimate that between 800,000 and 1.3 million people left Russia in the war's first year.

Kim said most who wanted to leave have already done so. Now, people stay either because they cannot leave or because they choose to remain -- whether to support or oppose the regime from within.

He does not expect another mass exodus unless Moscow launches a new large-scale mobilization.

Russia faces a manpower shortage for its war effort, Kim said, and is trying to fill the gap through paid volunteer service and by recruiting migrants.

He noted that many potential recruits are only children raised by single mothers-- "the main electoral base of the Putin regime."

If these families begin receiving death notices, he warned, public support for the government could erode quickly.

Meanwhile, Russia's labor and talent shortages are deepening. Tighter antimigrant policies and an ongoing brain drain have left the country with fewer skilled workers and more academics leaving than during the economic turmoil of the 1990s.