By Olha Hembik | 2025-11-07

WARSAW -- As winter looms, Ukraine is preparing for battles both on the front lines and in its homes and power plants. Russia's campaign to plunge the country into darkness is accelerating, targeting the infrastructure that keeps millions of Ukrainians warm and connected.

Moscow's strategic goal, according to analysts, is to destroy or disable Ukraine's energy facilities. Russian forces have intensified attacks on the power grid ahead of the cold months, aiming to maximize outages and hardship.

The strikes have zeroed in on nuclear and thermal plants that supply about 60% of Ukraine's electricity, key gas production sites and roughly 90 major substations that distribute power across regions.

The Kremlin's broader objective, experts say, is to cripple the eastern regions, severing the industrial Donbas from western Ukraine's generating capacity.

According to an October report by Ukrayinska Pravda, Russia's apparent plan is to slice Ukraine's power grid in two by dividing facilities on either side of the Dnieper River. Such a split could trigger a nationwide blackout.

The Kremlin also seeks to freeze Ukraine's resilience: to halt industry, make cities unlivable and drive civilians into panic and exile.

A terrorist schedule

On October 1, drones and missiles hit a power facility in the Chernihiv region, cutting electricity to 307,000 consumers, according to TSN. The Chernobyl nuclear plant lost power for more than three hours.

Two days later, Russian forces targeted energy sites in 11 regions, inflicting heavy damage on gas infrastructure.

On October 10, attacks damaged several hydroelectric and thermal power plants, including the Pridneprovsk and Kryvyi Rih plants.

Rostislav Pavlenko, a political scientist and member of parliament, told Kontur that Russia has maintained its "terrorist schedule" of strikes since the first large-scale assaults in October 2022.

The latest attacks, he said, aim to deprive Ukrainians of gas and water, as has already happened in occupied territories.

Over the past several weeks, Russian bombardments have disabled several thermal plants and about half of Ukraine's gas production capacity, forcing the country to import gas worth nearly $1.9 billion, The Economist reported.

Stanislav Ignatiev of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future told Kyiv24 in October that Russia is now hitting facilities supplying individual regions. The Chernihiv region and six others face temporary restrictions on heat for both industry and households.

Ignatiev added that Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy and Zaporizhzhia are introducing emergency blackout schedules. Western regions remain more energy secure thanks to local generation facilities and a stronger power distribution network.

Wave of Shaheds

Russia has overhauled its air warfare tactics, replacing costly, inaccurate missiles with waves of Shahed drones equipped with artificial intelligence for precision strikes, The Economist reported in October.

The drones can reach speeds of about 300 km/h, and swarms of up to 600 or 700 are used in single attacks, making "air defense virtually impossible," according to the publication.

UA War Infographics, which tracks strikes on energy infrastructure, said Russia launched 61 attacks on Ukrainian energy sites in the first half of 2025.

In 2024, Russia fired 2,000 missiles and 10,900 drones; in just the first six months of 2025, that number rose to 800 missiles and 22,600 drones.

Kyiv faces particular risk, said Ignatiev. He cited Chernihiv as an example, noting that the region suffered a major blackout after a strike on the Nizhyn Thermal Power Plant.

"Chernihiv reveals a water supply problem in that the water utility pumping group does not have its own power supply," he said, warning that Kyiv could face similar outages.

Ignatiev added that it is unlikely the capital will be "plunged into darkness for a long time," though he recalled that parts of Kyiv lost power for days last year after a hydroelectric plant was hit.

Water supply expert Leonid Gapon warned that if temperatures drop to minus 5 to minus 7 degrees Celsius for several hours, unheated buildings could face catastrophic damage.

"Standing water in uninsulated or poorly protected pipes will begin to crystallize," he told Kontur. "The heating, water supply and drainage systems will burst… It will be Alchevsk-2025 in every city."

Getting stronger

Despite grim forecasts, Kyiv resident Larisa Kovalenko plans to stay in her hometown this winter. In her apartment building's group chat, neighbors are discussing survival gear -- power banks, LED strips, gas burners and sleeping bags.

"We say that it's essential to stock up on foods with a long shelf life, drinking water and industrial water," Kovalenko told Kontur.

During a trip to Warsaw, she checked out heated blankets, adding, "If we survive this winter, things will get easier."

Ignatiev noted that Kyiv residents will particularly benefit from the city's mobile Unbreakability Centers, where people can charge phones, get news updates and warm up with tea.

Service member and Automaidan activist Sergey Khadzhinov told Kontur that the enemy "has learned to attack energy infrastructure," but he remains optimistic.

"The winter of 2022–2023 was difficult, with the biggest blackouts," he said. "Then distribution transformers arrived from the EU, businesses bought generators, and people bought EcoFlow portable power stations."

Ukraine continues to strengthen its defenses, expanding air defense systems, deploying new drone interceptor technologies and creating hundreds of military units to protect critical infrastructure.

Khadzhinov believes the country has already endured its hardest test.

"The most difficult and critical year has already passed and is unlikely to repeat itself," he said. "Every year of this war of attrition, we're getting stronger, whereas the enemy is doing the opposite."