By Galina Korol | 2025-12-23

Weapons are being taken out of storage, reservists summoned and drones prepared for flight in Transnistria, a separatist enclave wedged between Moldova and Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence officials say the Kremlin is reviving the region as a pressure point -- part of a broader effort to distract Kyiv as the war grinds on in the east.

According to sources in Ukrainian military intelligence cited by Suspilne, Moscow is urgently strengthening its presence in the breakaway region.

In a December 10 report, Suspilne said mobilization measures are accelerating, with reservists called up, weapons reactivated, and drone production and drone-operator training centers set in motion.

According to the intelligence sources, Russia is also deploying its intelligence operatives to the region. Their task is to provoke instability, launch information attacks and carry out sabotage. It is familiar set of tools used when the Kremlin seeks to create a "point of tension" near Ukraine's borders to force Kyiv to redistribute its forces.

"The risk that sabotage groups will infiltrate Ukrainian territory is increasing," Suspilne quoted one source as saying. The source linked the renewed hybrid operation to preparations for the region's so-called presidential election in 2026.

The intelligence source told Suspilne that Moscow is relying on crisis, chaos and pressure to regain influence weakened after Gazprom halted gas supplies to the region.

Holding the region

Vitalie Andrievschi, a political analyst in Chisinau and director of the Institute for Effective Policy, offered a similar assessment in an interview with Kontur.

He said recent pseudo-elections held November 30 for all governing bodies except the presidency revealed waning support for the de facto authorities. Official turnout was reported at 26 percent, but analysts estimate actual participation barely exceeded 21 percent.

"The lack of serious support from the current government in Transnistria frightened Russia because that indicates that people are starting to turn away," Andrievschi said.

He said Moscow is trying to reassert control using familiar methods: intimidation, military signaling and manufactured threats. The suggestion of possible action toward Ukraine's Odesa and Vinnytsia regions fits that pattern, he argued.

"There will be constant movement to make Ukraine uneasy: maneuvers, demonstrative troop buildups, the reactivation of weapons. That doesn't mean they're going to start military actions tomorrow, but they're going to keep everyone permanently in suspense," Andrievschi said.

"If there's a gun hanging on the wall in act 1, it must go off in act 3," he reminded, invoking Anton Chekhov's principle that every element in a story must serve a purpose.

As long as Russian troops remain in Transnistria, he added, there is always a risk "that these weapons will come into play."

Ruslan Rokhov, a political consultant and managing partner at PGR Consulting Group, said the activity projects readiness without changing the balance of power.

Training exercises, troop movements and propaganda videos all paint a picture of preparedness, but they do not alter realities on the ground, Rokhov told Kontur.

He said even at the most dangerous moments of the war, Moscow failed to turn Transnistria into a viable launch point against southern Ukraine. That potential has since diminished further.

Rokhov said Russia's losses in Moldova's parliamentary elections sharply limited its ability to rotate troops into the enclave.

"That means that even if [the unrecognized Transnistria authorities] mobilize the local population, which is demotivated and doesn't want to die for foreign interests, that will not lead to the emergence of a capable group that could threaten the security of the Odesa or Vinnytsia regions," Rokhov said.

Despite the latest escalation, Moldova's government has avoided public confrontation. Chisinau's official position remains "to not use military action to solve the Transnistria problem," Rokhov said.

That restraint does not mean inaction, Andrievschi added.

"According to the information I have, Moldova is keeping a close eye on the situation. I think there is definite contact between Chisinau and Kyiv with discussions on what to initiate and whether real actions will start," he said.

He added that the self-proclaimed authorities in Tiraspol understand that further escalation would hit them hardest.

"They'll ultimately lose power," Andrievschi said.

The most serious remaining risk comes from the actions of Russia's Federal Security Service, which maintains a significant agent network in the region, he noted.

A generation shaped

Russia's pressure on Transnistria is not limited to military signaling. In parallel, Moscow is tightening ideological control by targeting the most vulnerable group: children.

Vadim Vieru, a program director at the Promo-LEX Association, said this effort is systematic and directed by the de facto authorities.

"In answer to the question of whether in Transnistria they're creating 'soldiers' starting from when they're in daycare, unfortunately, we need to acknowledge that this isn't a metaphor -- it's reality," Vieru told Kontur.

He said children as young as 3 or 4 are being prepared for war through regular events that present military service as normal and aspirational.

"We're seeing how children from an early age . . . are being dressed in the military uniform and forced to march and participate in performances that simulate combat. This is a flagrant violation of children's rights that is turning schools into instruments of propaganda," Vieru said.

He said what authorities describe as "patriotic education" amounts to direct military involvement in schools and day care centers. Security officials, Cossacks and Russian service members from the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria regularly visit classrooms with weapons, demonstrate their use and allow children to assemble and disassemble them.

As a result, schools are effectively assigned to specific military units.

"A direct connection between the desk and the barracks is being created," Vieru said.

He said the strategy aims to entrench a sense of siege and loyalty to the regime. Children are taught a distorted history portraying Moldova and the West as aggressors and Russian troops as saviors.

Vieru said the education system aligns fully with Russian standards. Textbooks, guidelines and materials are imported from Russia or copied, and organizations such as the Young Army operate openly in the region.

"The main goal of this brainwashing is to produce an image of the enemy and strengthen the identity of the 'besieged fortress,'" Vieru said.

The long-term danger is the loss of an entire generation.

"If no one steps in, these children will grow up with deeply ingrained anti-Western and anti-Moldovan attitudes," Vieru said. Even if a political settlement becomes possible, he added, repairing the human consequences of decades of indoctrination will take years, if not decades.