By Ekaterina Janashia | 2026-02-24

Four years ago today, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a "special military operation" he expected to last days. It hasn't ended yet.

On the war's fourth anniversary, European leaders flew to Kyiv to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. Russia marked the occasion by striking Zaporizhzhia's infrastructure. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Putin "has not achieved his goals" and "has not broken Ukrainians."

As Russia enters another year of war, the meaning of "victory" appears to depend largely on where one stands. For the Kremlin, it serves as a necessary narrative to sustain public resolve. For soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine, the outcome remains uncertain and costly.

Earlier in February, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said a Russian victory in Ukraine is "already visible across a number of parameters." In interviews with TASS and Reuters, the former president argued the war is nearing its end and success could come soon.

Battlefield data and economic indicators suggest otherwise.

Territorial gains limited

If territorial control defines victory, the numbers tell a restrained story.

According to a February 2026 assessment by Russia Matters, Russian forces captured about 2,171 square miles in 2025 — roughly 0.93% of Ukraine's territory. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said recent advances, including the seizure of towns such as Hulyaipole, represent tactical gains rather than strategic breakthroughs.

In the week before Medvedev's interview, Russian forces advanced about 29 square miles, an area slightly larger than Manhattan. ISW analysts said Moscow continues to pursue operations toward Lyman and Slovyansk but likely lacks the short-term offensive capacity to achieve those goals, partly due to Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupyansk.

At the current pace, analysts estimate Russia would need more than two years to secure the remaining portions of Donetsk region alone, far short of the sweeping victory implied by official rhetoric.

Heavy human losses

The human cost also challenges claims of progress.

Ukraine's General Staff estimates Russia has suffered more than 1.24 million personnel losses since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The figure includes more than 1,000 casualties reported in a single 24-hour period in early February 2026. Ukrainian reports also cite the destruction of thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, drones and missiles.

Western estimates are lower but still severe. Analyses by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the UK Ministry of Defense place Russian military deaths above 325,000.

Such attrition reflects a war defined less by decisive maneuver than by grinding losses on both sides.

Economy and messaging

Strains extend beyond the battlefield.

To fund the 2026 military budget, estimated at 17 trillion RUB (about $190 billion), Russia's Finance Ministry has proposed raising the value-added tax to 22%. Pro-war military bloggers have also acknowledged delays in payments and benefits to soldiers.

Recruits from regions such as Kostroma sometimes die within days of signing contracts, before families receive promised bonuses. Reports of soldiers purchasing their own equipment, including drones and thermal imagers, further suggest logistical gaps.

Analysts increasingly interpret Medvedev's statements through the lens of strategic messaging rather than military assessment. His comments appeared just days before peace discussions in Abu Dhabi, reinforcing what some experts describe as an effort to frame Russian victory as inevitable.

"It is clear that Russia is militarily unable to achieve its broad goals in Ukraine. They seem to understand that at some point they have to settle for far less, at least for now," Shota Utiashvili, a senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, told Kontur.

"For this, they need to declare victory but also keep the state and society on war footing to avoid embarrassing questions and keep repressions on full gear. This can be the reason why Medvedev is talking about winning in Ukraine but continuing confrontation with the West."

Researchers at the ISW have similarly suggested Moscow is seeking narratives that might weaken Western support for Ukraine or discourage new security guarantees.

Meanwhile, Russia continues large-scale strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. In early February, Moscow launched more than 400 drones and missiles targeting energy facilities, including substations linked to nuclear power plants. Separate attacks in southeastern Ukraine killed at least 18 people and damaged civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital.

EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova condemned the strikes, saying the Kremlin "respects no agreements" and that its commitments cannot be trusted.