By Olha Chepil | 2026-06-15

In Crimea's motorist chat groups, the same message keeps appearing: no gas, no coupons, no end in sight. A user named Alyona joked about pitching a tent to hold her place in line. Others are riding horses or switching to bicycles. One video circulating online shows a man doing exactly that.

This is not a temporary inconvenience. It is a supply chain under siege. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's main southern overland route have triggered a fuel crisis that is spreading from Crimea across all Russian-occupied territories and is starting to affect the front lines.

A strangled artery

The M-14 highway, also known as the Novorossiya R-280, runs from Rostov-on-Don westward through occupied Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol to Crimea. After Ukrainian strikes degraded the Crimean Bridge, the M-14 became Russia's primary overland supply route to the peninsula and the southern front.

"This is the main artery," Alexander Kovalenko, a military and political analyst for InfoResist, told Kontur. "The M-14 enables the movement of cargo traffic to Crimea as well as to the frontline positions in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Like blood vessels, it branches out into all the other highways."

According to Kovalenko, cargo volume on the M-14 exceeds what travels over the Crimean Bridge, despite years without repairs. The road is now under sustained attack. Ukraine's new Hornet and Ram-2X drones have a range of up to 200 kilometers (about 125 miles), enough to cover the entire 120-kilometer (75-mile) gap between the front lines and the Sea of Azov coast around the clock.

The damage is measurable. Oko Gora, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) project, tracked more than 60 trucks and fuel tankers set ablaze on the M-14 and N-20 highways in just three weeks. Carriers willing to risk the route now charge up to 100,000 RUB (about $1,100) for a single round trip -- roughly a month's salary.

"They're well aware that they're basically working under the threat of strikes, so the risks are reflected directly in the logistics price," Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation, told Kontur.

Andriushchenko said Moscow faces a problem with no quick solution. Belarus lacks the capacity to offset the fuel shortage, Russian refining capacity has been partially damaged by strikes, and the overland corridor remains the key supply route.

Crimea runs dry

The consequences in Crimea are stark. A liter of gas now costs 250 RUB (roughly $2.75) on the black market -- nearly three times the official price of 91 RUB (about $1). Starting May 31, occupation authorities introduced ration coupons limiting purchases to 20 liters per vehicle per day, with a ban on filling gas cans. The largest chains quickly ran out.

"In the morning they were still available, but by evening they were gone," Andriushchenko said.

People began selling the coupons on Avito, a Russian classifieds website, within days. In a previous crisis, Andriushchenko said, residents waited weeks before turning to that market. This time they moved immediately.

Vladislav, a Crimean who moved to Kazakhstan because of the war, is keeping tabs on the situation through motorists' chats.

"Coupons are no longer needed because there's no gas anyway. Many people are taking minibuses and GAZelles to Russia to get fuel and are transporting it in plastic containers," Vladislav said.

The occupation's leader, Sergey Aksyonov, has said stabilizing the situation could take around a month and called on residents not to panic.

The front feels it

The fuel shortage is now reaching Russian military operations. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has documented a significant intensification of Ukrainian medium-range strikes on Russian logistics across all occupied territories, from Luhansk Region to Crimea. Berdyansk, Mariupol and occupied cities in Zaporizhzhia Region are experiencing shortages. Russian military bloggers acknowledge that Ukrainian drones are penetrating air defenses and reaching the border with Rostov Region.

"Their logistics capabilities have been significantly curtailed, and problems are cropping up with ammunition, petroleum and the rotation of personnel," Kovalenko said. "It's snowballing. In the future they could lose both their offensive and their defensive capabilities."

The ISW has reported that Ukrainian strikes are already slowing Russian battlefield advances. According to The Moscow Times, Russian military bloggers have warned that around 150,000 service members risk supply disruptions.

Ukraine is treating this as a deliberate strategic campaign. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 27 that the "logistics lockdown" program would be expanded.

"Our drone system operations will be scaled up along the M-14 highway as well as along other highways in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions," Kovalenko said. "Essentially we're completely knocking out Russian logistics from the temporarily occupied south."