By Galina Korol | 2026-01-26

With local elections looming in Gagauzia, a small autonomous region in southern Moldova, the Kremlin is dusting off a familiar playbook and giving it a new label.

As the March 22 vote approaches, Moscow-backed networks tied to fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor are shifting from empty promises of prosperity to a simpler, stickier message: Chisinau is coming for your autonomy.

Analysts say the campaign marks a new phase of Russia's hybrid pressure on Moldova, centered on reframing old influence operations as a grassroots struggle for self-rule. The aim is leverage -- keeping the region politically volatile as Moldova moves closer to the European Union.

Rebranding the network

On January 4, the news and analytical portal AVA.MD reported that a prearranged influence scheme linked to Shor had been relaunched in Gagauzia under a new name, "Patriots of Gagauzia." According to the portal, the decision was made in Moscow and backed by financing.

The rebrand reflects necessity. Shor's name has become deeply toxic in Moldova, galvanizing pro-European voters and drawing the attention of law enforcement. Convicted in a notorious fraud case involving the theft of $1 billion, Shor fled to Russia years ago. The political network he built, however, commonly known as the "Shorists," never disappeared.

In the past, the group relied on what observers describe as "social bribery," promising cheap gas, pension supplements and splashy infrastructure projects. Those pledges have largely lost credibility. Now, the strategy is to mobilize voters through fear.

"They will be selling fear," Vitalie Andrievschi, a political analyst and director of the Institute for Effective Policy, told Kontur. He said the core narrative being pushed is that "Chisinau is preparing to take away the region's autonomy."

Russia is expected to invest resources in amplifying this message, with activists encouraged to campaign for seats in the People's Assembly as defenders of autonomy, Andrievschi said. He added that Moscow has not withdrawn from Gagauzia but has adapted its tactics after Moldovan authorities began cracking down on illicit financing.

That crackdown has already produced high-profile cases. Gagauzia's governor, Yevgenia Gutsul, was arrested on March 25, 2025, while attempting to fly from Moldova to Istanbul. Investigators said that between 2019 and 2022, when she worked as a secretary in organizations tied to the now-banned Shor Party, she played a central role in an illegal financing scheme.

According to the investigation, Gutsul regularly flew to Russia and back within a single day, carrying cash, oversaw party headquarters and received more than €2 million from criminal organizations. A trial court sentenced her to seven years in prison. Her lawyers have appealed the verdict.

Despite those blows, Andrievschi said the network remains intact.

"Part of it withdrew into the shadows, but it still exists," he said, adding that voters are still being quietly promised post-election help.

A tool of pressure

Analysts say the People's Assembly elections matter far beyond the autonomous region. Andrievschi described them as strategically important because they shape the political environment ahead of the next vote for Gagauzia's governor, a position that sets the tone for regional politics.

Ilya Kotov, a public policy expert, told Kontur that Gagauzia continues to serve as a pressure point on Chisinau. Even partial success by pro-Russian candidates helps keep the region in a state of controlled tension.

"This is especially important in the context of Moldova's movement along with Ukraine into the EU," Kotov said. "Russia will make considerable effort to stop this process."

Alexei Tulbure, a political analyst and former Moldovan representative to the Council of Europe and the United Nations, said Chisinau has historically paid only intermittent attention to Gagauzia, often during election cycles. Pro-Russian parties capitalized on that neglect, while pro-European forces failed to build a sustained presence.

The electoral system also plays a role. Members of the People's Assembly are elected from single-member districts, giving each town one representative. In what Tulbure described as a patriarchal and not fully modernized society, that structure creates favorable conditions for managed outcomes with relatively little money. As a result, he said, sweeping change after the March vote is unlikely.

Tulbure added that Gagauzia does not currently pose an existential threat to Moldova. He recalled discussions in 2014, at the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, about creating a so-called Bessarabian Republic that could have encompassed parts of southern Ukraine and Moldova.

"If the separatist movements had developed successfully, it could have become a staging ground for an attack from the sea," he said. Those plans failed, leaving Gagauzia firmly within Moldova's legal framework, though political and psychological divisions persist.

Not Transnistria

Gagauzia is often compared with Transnistria, but Tulbure said the differences are fundamental. Transnistria developed as an industrial hub tied to the Soviet military-industrial complex and has long been ruled by leaders from outside the region.

"These are outsiders," Tulbure said, referring to current Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky and his predecessor Igor Smirnov.

Gagauzia, by contrast, is a right-bank territory where local elites have always held authority. There is no deep separatist movement, and pro-Russian sentiment is largely psychological rather than political. Tulbure described it as a "protective reaction" rooted in fears that European integration could disrupt familiar social norms.

"Moldova is the homeland [of the residents of Gagauzia]," he said, adding that the Kremlin exploits anxiety about change by presenting Russia as the guarantor of stability.

"Gagauzia is simply Moldova's scruffy child who hasn't been loved or kissed enough," Tulbure said. He argued that genuine integration -- explaining the benefits of the European path without pressure -- would undercut the appeal of Russian destabilization efforts by reassuring residents that autonomy, minority rights and basic freedoms would be protected rather than erased.