By Halyna Hergert | 2026-07-08

Alyaksandr Lukashenka had one week to shut down the relay stations guiding Russian drones into Ukraine -- or Kyiv would destroy them itself. On the last day of that deadline, the Belarusian leader skipped town. Not toward Kyiv. Toward Valdai, then Beijing.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued the ultimatum on June 19, warning that Belarus-based repeaters were helping guide Russian drones toward Ukrainian civilians.

"I think a week will be enough for him to do this," Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference in Kyiv with Honduran President Nasry Asfura, according to Interfax-Ukraine. "If he doesn't do it, we will."

Ukrainian intelligence reported the stations went dark on June 22. By June 29, the deadline's final day, Lukashenka had left for Russia, then China.

Choosing Valdai

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst and director of the Penta Center for Political Studies, told Kontur that fear increasingly drives Lukashenka's decisions.

"Lukashenka understands, I think, that he has a primal, animal intuition," Fesenko said. "He understands that this is very dangerous for him, that he could lose power, lose Belarus."

The choice of meeting location was itself telling.

Oleh Lisnyi, president of the Politika Analytical Center, told Kontur that Russian President Vladimir Putin met Lukashenka at his Valdai residence rather than the Kremlin because it offered safety.

"No one was bombing Moscow or the surrounding region, making it the safest spot where Putin can feel relatively secure," he said. The outlet Agentstvo reported that Putin rarely hosts foreign leaders at Valdai, a detail widely repeated by other media.

Political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe, saw darker symbolism in the location. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin formally fell under Lukashenka's protection after his 2023 mutiny. His plane later crashed just 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the Valdai residence.

"When Putin summoned him to the exact same place along the exact same route, I think that in Putin's mob-like, mafia logic, it served as a signal: you too might not complete your flight one day if you don't comply," Preobrazhensky told Kontur.

A muted summit

The pressure campaign didn't clearly pay off for the Kremlin. Lukashenka left without new security guarantees.

"He received no additional security guarantees. Perhaps he hoped that together with Putin they would issue a joint rebuff to Zelenskyy -- that did not happen," Fesenko said.

State media typically broadcasts staged embraces from these summits. This time, no footage aired from inside the residence. Lisnyi called the silence a sign of failure.

"This indicates that, most likely, Putin failed to achieve any significant results -- meaning, to convince Lukashenka of something," he said. Minsk is trying to avoid opening a second front, understanding the risks of direct conflict, Lisnyi argued.

Russia also lacks the resources to protect Belarus if fighting escalates, according to Fesenko.

"They lack the forces to protect Crimea. They are pulling all available air defense systems to protect Moscow, but even that is insufficient to cover their own oil refineries," he said.

That leaves Minsk as a vital rear resource for the Kremlin -- perhaps Lukashenka's only real leverage over Putin, analysts said. Lisnyi noted that Belarusian gasoline and diesel remain critical to Russia. As long as Lukashenka keeps his troops out of Ukraine, Belarusian refineries stay off Ukraine's target list, securing fuel for Russian military logistics. Moscow has little choice but to tolerate Lukashenka's maneuvering to protect that supply.

Beijing's red lines

The China trip wasn't a reaction to the Valdai letdown. Organizers had planned it well in advance, running parallel with the Russia trip, said Andriy Strannykov, a major in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and director of the Institute of Political Education. He told Kontur this reflects a classic survival strategy. As Moscow pressures Minsk to join the war and accelerate absorption into the Union State, Beijing serves as Lukashenka's alternative anchor.

"That is precisely why following the Valdai talks — which likely cemented Moscow's irritation over Lukashenka's independent streak — he tried to secure backing in Beijing for Chinese peace initiatives to justify his refusal to engage in a direct escalation with Ukraine," Strannykov said.

On June 29, Lukashenka met Xi Jinping in Beijing. Xi said relations between the two countries had reached a "historical peak" and pledged support for Belarus's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, the BBC Russian Service reported the same day. Xi also urged both countries to mobilize resources for the Belt and Road Initiative and deepen coordination at multilateral forums to serve as "a stabilizing factor in a turbulent world."

Belarusian state media emphasized optics over policy after the visit, according to the BBC. Officials publicized a family dinner Xi hosted for Lukashenka, with the dictator's press service calling the format proof of "a unique level of personal trust" beyond standard protocol.

Analysts agreed Lukashenka got the protection he sought. Preobrazhensky said Beijing's interests go beyond backing Lukashenka personally: China views Belarus as a bridgehead on the European Union's border and as leverage over Moscow.

"China needs neither a defeated Russia nor a victorious Russia," he said. A Russia weakened by war and sanctions stays dependent on Beijing, making it a more cooperative partner. That gives China little incentive to see Lukashenka removed or Belarus dragged into war.

Lisnyi said Beijing's statements sent a clear signal to Moscow.

"The talk of supporting Belarus's sovereignty and the promises of economic aid draw quite clear 'red lines' personally for Putin," he said.

China's support isn't purely altruistic.

"Lukashenka needs money to hold onto power, and he begs for it everywhere. In return, Beijing will seize new assets and expand its footprint in the Belarusian economy," Fesenko said.

The diplomatic backdrop shifted the same day. At a UN Security Council session, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Sun Lei, said Beijing urges Moscow and Kyiv to restart talks. China maintains an "unbiased position" on the conflict, Sun said, adding: "Together with the international community, we are ready to continue playing a constructive role in facilitating a political settlement to this crisis." The timing, matching Xi's meeting with Lukashenka, appeared far from accidental.

Fesenko said a Chinese role in peace talks could eventually go public, though for now any involvement stays unofficial and focused on preventing conflict between Minsk and Kyiv. He said Lukashenka may be trying to persuade Xi to launch China-led talks in Minsk -- a nonstarter for Ukraine.

"Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Moscow and Minsk are toxic negotiating venues, given that Ukraine views Belarus as the Kremlin's ally and proxy," Fesenko said.