By Galina Korol | 2025-02-25

KYIV -- Moscow plans to send up to 100,000 troops to Belarus this year under the guise of holding training exercises, according to Ukrainian intelligence agencies.

But Ukrainian authorities are interpreting the move as possible preparation for an attack on European countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin "doesn't want to end the war," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with The Economist published on February 12.

The Russian military added 140,000 to its ranks in 2024, and plans to add another 150,000 men in 2025, Zelenskyy said, citing Ukrainian intelligence agencies.

Putin plans to form about 12 to 15 divisions, he said.

"Moreover, his goal is to send them all for training, military training, military exercises to Belarus," Zelenskyy said.

"Maybe 100,000 will be going. A lot," Zelenskyy told The Economist. "He will send [them] there. So, for what? He will tell you that this is training, exercises near the borders of Ukraine, as it was before. But believe me, this is the preparation of a bridgehead for offensive actions."

Lessons from history

"Using exercises to hide an actual future attack is something that was already tried in the recent past," said Ihor Chalenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, director of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, and a member of the National League of Centrists.

"We've already seen active drills of the Union State [Russia and Belarus], like in 2021, when Russian forces were deployed directly both on Belarusian soil and along the Russia-Ukraine borders for long months," he told Kontur.

The next year, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The information Zelenskyy shared needs to be viewed as part of a historical pattern, said Chalenko.

"First there's the deployment of [Russian] tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Second, there are public statements and the signing of an agreement to store the Oreshnik somewhere [in Belarus] near Smolensk," he said, referring to a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile.

All of this could indicate that Moscow is "turning Belarus into a staging ground -- a staging ground from which ... military action could really be planned," Chalenko said. "This means we absolutely shouldn't take this information about plans lightly."

Buildup in Kaliningrad province

Observers also associate with this set of events the news that Russia may be trying to ship military vehicles from Tartus, Syria, to the Baltics by freighter.

Two Russian transport ships, Sparta and Sparta II, had passed through the strait between Sicily and Tunisia, and were heading to the Strait of Gibraltar to exit the Mediterranean Sea, the Crimean Wind monitoring group reported on its Telegram channel February 5.

Citing further evidence, when Sparta II left Tartus in late January, its destination was set as Baltiysk, in Kaliningrad province, Russia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported February 5.

The Sparta, meanwhile, left Syria with its automatic identification system turned off. The cargo ship turned on its location transmitter only briefly on February 4, and it was located near Malta, according to MarineTraffic.

"There's certainly a buildup going on [in Kaliningrad]. In other words, similar to Crimea, Kaliningrad province is being turned into a fortress," Chalenko said.

Is Russia preparing for war with NATO?

The threat Russia poses to the NATO countries in Europe can only grow as time passes, according to a report by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS).

"Russia views itself as being in a conflict with the West and is preparing for a war with NATO," the February 9 DDIS report said.

"This does not mean that a decision to start a war has already been made, but Russia is arming itself and building the potential for making such a decision," it said.

It is unlikely that Russia will be able to simultaneously fight in Ukraine and against one or more NATO countries, the DDIS found.

However, once combat on the Ukrainian front ends for good or pauses, Russia will be able to free up substantial military resources and consequently bolster its ability to threaten NATO directly.

"China's financial and material support, along with backing from North Korea and Iran in the form of troops and weapon systems, increasingly enables Russia to free up resources to rearm against NATO," the Danish assessment read.

The report also forecast potential scenarios in which after the war in Ukraine ends, six months later the Kremlin could foment a local conflict in one of its neighbors.

Moscow might need two years to be ready for a regional war in the Baltics. Then, in about five years it could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe.

"The [war] machine has been set in motion, and that machine needs to be implemented somewhere," Viktor Yahun, a former deputy director of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and a reservist Ukrainian major general, told Kontur.

"The issue [the Russians] are facing has to do with a split in NATO. To make that happen, [Russia] needs to mass its forces and move them closer to the border from two sides," he said.

"From Leningrad and Pskov provinces, they can strike Narva and [the rest of] Estonia, as well as Lithuania. And then consequently head out to the border with Poland, seize Lithuania, head out to Kaliningrad and so on," Yahun said, outlining plans Russia could potentially have.

'The Belarusian balcony'

Russia could use the Belarusians in all these hypothetical plans, analysts warn.

"In reality [dictator Alyaksandr] Lukashenka doesn't control his own territory, and there's nothing stopping the Russians from, to put it bluntly, going out disguised under Belarusian chevrons and [ostensibly] showing that they're acting together," Chalenko said.

"The arrival in Belarus of a force that's 100,000 or 200,000 strong is just a matter of time and opportunity for Russia," said Oleg Zhdanov, a Ukranian reservist colonel.

"We're talking about the 'Belarusian balcony,' a valuable position that can be a threat in three directions: Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west and the Baltic countries to the north," he told Kontur.

A sign of Russia's commitment to such belligerent plans is its willingness to position nuclear weapons in Belarus, Zhdanov said. "It's already built a nuclear weapon storage base near Minsk for that."

A strong Ukraine is what can offset the threat to Europe, said Zhdanov.

"When in the future Ukraine is powerful and we keep a certain number of troops on the border with Belarus, especially in areas that are dangerous to tanks, places where heavy vehicles and armored fighting vehicles can go, that's the only chance we'll have to neutralize the threat," he said.