By Galina Korol | 2025-05-13

KYIV -- Belarus is bracing for a migrant influx that could shape its workforce and possibly its foreign policy.

The government's plan to admit up to 150,000 Pakistani workers has sparked public outcry, not least because that number is more than double the entire current population of foreign laborers in the country.

Belarusians first learned about the possible arrival of such a large number of foreigners after strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif April 11 in Minsk discussed the matter.

"Specialists from various industries will be sent, those industries that we request. And Pakistan's leadership will help us select these people. Let it be 100,000, maybe 120 to 150,000 of these specialists. We are ready to receive them in Belarus and create necessary conditions for their work," Lukashenka said in a video published on the Deutsche Welle Belarus YouTube channel on April 15.

The two countries have yet to adopt an intergovernmental agreement outlining the Belarusian mechanism for receiving foreign workers.

Belarus's ethnic homogeneity means it is likely to face significant challenges as it integrates large numbers of foreign nationals, according to Alexey Frantskevich, a coordinator at the Belarusian Crisis Center in Lviv and director of the NGO Free Belarus.

He pointed specifically to the cultural and mental gap between two such different societies.

"In other words, these are challenges that threaten Belarus's national security," he told Kontur.

'Image of a migrant'

The announcement of plans to admit Pakistani workers sparked a public backlash in Belarus. Social media platforms were quickly flooded with critical responses, reflecting widespread anxiety over cultural differences and potential social disruption in a country already fatigued by years of political instability.

The April 15 video of Lukashenka's remarks on YouTube drew more than 200 negative comments. One user questioned whether Belarusians had been consulted at all, asking rhetorically if residents would now need to "walk around with machine guns at night." Others expressed confusion and alarm, with one commenter asking, "What did we do to anger the Lord?"

"They [authorities and propagandists] seem to have forgotten that for a long time, they themselves shaped the image of a migrant for Belarusians only as a criminal and someone trying to illegally enter Europe and not work," BELSAT journalist Arsen Rudenko wrote in an article published April 24.

Following the regime's brutal crackdown on dissent after the contested 2020 presidential elections, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians fled the country, seeking safety abroad. The largest wave of emigration coincided with the post-election protests, with Poland alone receiving an estimated 350,000 Belarusians, a staggering figure for a nation of just 9 million, noted Frantskevich.

This mass exodus has left Belarus facing a severe labor shortage. The country has about 200,000 job vacancies, Frantskevich estimated.

Even government officials acknowledge the scale of the problem.

"If someone here is afraid of foreigners, well then they'll have to do the jobs of three people," said Lukashenka in a YouTube video published on April 25 by BelTA news agency.

'No integration programs or experience'

The Lukashenka regime claims that an influx of Pakistani migrant workers will help stabilize Belarus's struggling economy, but analysts remain skeptical of the plan's feasibility and logic.

Iaroslav Chornogor, director of Russian and Belarusian studies at the Ukrainian Prism think tank, questioned the premise itself. Replacing workers who fled the country because of authoritarian repression is "strange," he told Kontur.

"It's unlikely there are enough qualified Pakistanis or even highly skilled people whom he could attract," he said.

Frantskevich echoed those doubts, noting that Pakistani migrants are unlikely to qualify in Belarus as doctors, teachers or engineers. Even if the government is counting on filling factory floors with cheap labor, Frantskevich warned of basic barriers.

"What factories will they go work in? All instructions, all signs are in Russian," he said.

"Belarus has never been known for high salaries. That's why people have been gradually emigrating to neighboring countries to earn a living," Chornogor added.

Political scientist Roza Turabekova, who fled Belarus for her own safety, also sees little appeal for Pakistanis. Pakistanis typically migrate to English-speaking countries or Persian Gulf states, where salaries are significantly higher, she pointed out in an April 25 article from Deutsche Welle.

"I can hardly imagine how they [Pakistanis] will work in a Belarusian factory. Who will train them and how? Belarus has no integration programs or experience handling this number of migrants," she said.

'Migrants for the hybrid war?'

Lukashenka's labor initiative also raises questions about whether it serves purely economic goals or something more strategic.

Belarus has a track record of weaponizing migration in its hybrid conflict with Poland.

Desperate nationals of poor countries continue to attempt illegal crossings into the European Union, with recent incidents turning violent. Migrants at the Belarusian-Polish border threw stones at Polish patrols on May 6, injuring a border guard and damaging a vehicle, Nasha Niva reported.

While observers agree that Pakistani workers are unlikely to be deployed in such hybrid operations, they doubt the labor plan will materialize. Lukashenka appears more focused on projecting economic stability than on resolving underlying problems.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has strong incentives to cooperate. Labor migration is a key economic pillar: some 11 million Pakistanis work abroad, collectively sending home about $30 billion in remittances annually.