By Ekaterina Janashia | 2026-05-20

Russia and Belarus launched joint nuclear drills Monday, deploying hypersonic Oreshnik missiles miles from NATO's eastern border. It was the first exercise of its kind since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) expired in February -- and Moscow wasted no time.

The drills included covert troop movements, mobile missile units and aviation capable of delivering tactical and strategic nuclear payloads. The Belarusian Defense Ministry called the drills "planned" and insisted they posed no threat to neighboring countries. But the timing is telling. They unfolded as Ukraine reinforced its northern border and Russia test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

A weapon Putin calls unstoppable

At the center of the drills is the Oreshnik -- Russian for "hazelnut" -- a hypersonic, nuclear-capable intermediate-range missile Russia deployed to Belarus in late 2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called it "unstoppable," claiming its warheads travel at Mach 10. Intermediate-range missiles were banned under the Soviet-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty until its collapse in 2019.

Stationed in Belarus, the system cuts flight time to major European capitals significantly -- a move critics have called nuclear blackmail.

"Lukashenko has turned Belarus into a platform for Russian threats, but Belarusians don't need these weapons," said Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian opposition leader, in an interview with the Associated Press. "Only a free Belarus will become a source of security, not nuclear blackmail, in Europe."

The Belarusian Defense Ministry confirmed that the drills covered the full chain of nuclear use: delivering munitions, preparing their deployment and training forces to move covertly across large distances in coordination with Russian forces.

Ukraine braces for a second front

The exercises come as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered a significant reinforcement of the country's northern border with Belarus. He cited intelligence suggesting Moscow may be planning a renewed offensive from the north, mirroring the opening of the 2022 invasion.

"I understand clearly what is being discussed between Russia and Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka," Zelensky said during an evening address May 15. "They want to draw Belarus much more into the war and start additional aggressive operations from Belarusian territory -- either against our Chernihiv-Kyiv sector, or against one of the NATO countries that border Belarus."

The Kremlin dismissed the claim, calling Ukrainian troop movements a provocation.

Nuclear posturing fills a battlefield gap

Military analysts see Russia's nuclear signaling as a response to stalled conventional progress. Despite heavy mobilization, Russian forces have struggled to achieve decisive territorial gains as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year.

"The worse things get for the Russians on the front lines -- and recent events definitely point that way -- the more we're going to see the Kremlin threaten to ramp things up," Shota Utiashvili, a senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, told Kontur. "They'll keep dropping hints about using nukes or dragging other countries into the mess."

Last week, Russia test-launched the Sarmat ICBM, a super-heavy weapon designed to penetrate advanced missile defense systems. Putin told reporters May 12 the system would be fully deployed by end of 2026.

The backdrop for all of this is a world without nuclear limits. New START expired February 5, leaving the United States and Russia operating without legally binding caps on their arsenals for the first time in decades.

For Lukashenka, hosting Russian nuclear weapons is a survival strategy. Belarus depends on Moscow for economic subsidies and security guarantees, and has gradually integrated its military command with the Russian General Staff. In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine to state explicitly that an attack on Belarus would be treated as an attack on Russia.

Lukashenka has framed his own military buildup as a response to NATO aggression, ordering selective mobilization of military units to prepare for "possible combat operations."

"The Belarusian army only has about 35,000 troops, which is basically what Russia drafts in a single month," Utiashvili noted explaining what that actually amounts to in practice. "If they actually joined the war, it wouldn't change anything for Russia."